Trend of HIV/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90–90-90 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis

Abstract

BackgroundHIV infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic. Ethiopia has adopted the 90–90-90 by 2020 target but its progress was not yet assessed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trend of HIV infection for the last 26 years and to predict the achievements of the 90–90-90 target.MethodsWe used aggregates of HIV/AIDS indicator data from 1990 to 2016 of UNAIDS data bases. The data were analyzed with excel and STATA. The trend line that best fits the regression was drawn, annual change was estimated and future values of HIV detection rate, coverage of antiretroviral therapy and viral suppression indicators were predicted and compared with the 90–90-90 targets.ResultSince 1995, new infection has declined by 81% and since 2002; number of HIV cases has declined by 35.5%. However, after remarkable decline for decades, since 2008 HIV incidence rate began to rise by 10% and number of new infection diagnosed each year increased by 36% among all ages and doubled among adults. ART coverage has increased by 90% among all age and tripled among pregnant women within 6 years. Nationally, 67% of people living with HIV know their status, 88% of them are on treatment and 86% of people on treatment have viral suppression. As a result, AIDS-related death declined by 77 and 79% among all age and children respectively. By 2020, 79% of people living with HIV will know their HIV status, of which 96–99% of HIV infected people will be on ART and more than 86% will have viral suppression.ConclusionAfter remarkable decline, HIV infection started to increase in the last few years among adults. With the current trend, Ethiopia will achieve the second and third 90% HIV targets, while the first target is not achievable and without achieving this overarching goal control of the epidemic will not be achieved. Therefore due attention is needed to avert the current epidemics and diagnosis of cases.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3214-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Burden of fatigue among adults living with HIV/AIDS attending antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia

“…In 2017, around 36.9 million people were reported to live with HIV (PLHIV) globally, and the majority (76%) of the victims were located in sub-Saharan Africa [1,2]. Ethiopia is one of those countries with estimated prevalence of 1.1% [3]. Despite substantial regional variations, the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Tigray regional state was 1.2% [4].…”

Spatial clustering and socio-demographic determinants of HIV infection in Ethiopia, 2015–2017

“…A recent study indicated that progress towards achieving the 2020 targets are on track: 79% PLHIV know their status, 90% PLHIV are on ART, and 88% of PLHIV have suppressed viral loads (Assefa et al, 2019). However, the prevalence of HIV and incidence of new infections remain high (Girum et al, 2018). In 2017, the number of PLHIV was estimated to be 610 000 and the number of newly HIV-infected people was estimated to be 16 000 (UNAIDS, 2018a).…”

Determinants of HIV Testing Among Men Living in Rural Areas: Evidence from Ethiopian Population–Based Household Survey, 2016.

“…Although the service was delivered freely and is easily accessible by the people, it was far less than 90-90-90 global targets. However, this rate was higher than other sub-Saharan countries, e.g., Nigeria, South Africa, and Ghana indicated the tested amount was ranged from 14% − 22.6% (2,12,17).…”

“…After tremendous effort and investment, HIV remains a global health burden ; it affects 34-35.5 millions of peoples worldwide (1). The greater burden of HIV is borne by the sub-Saharan African region which is residence for only 12% share of the world population, but harbors 66.6% of PLWH and 70% of newly infected cases (1)(2)(3)(4)19). The prevalence of HIV in Ethiopia was estimated to be 0.9-1.1% (5)(6).…”