Trends in flood magnitude, frequency and seasonality in Germany in the period 1951–2002

Petrow, Theresia; Merz, Bruno

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.024

Cited by 294 publications

(211 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Moreover, significant upward trends were observed in several gauge records by Jeong et al (2008) after they have investigated trends in the peak flood data for the major Korean river basins. Petrow and Merz (2009) analysed the trends in the flood data in Germany using MK test. The analysis detected significant flood upward trends for a considerable fraction of basins.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Analysis of Trends in Australian Flood Data

Ishak¹,

Rahman²,

Westra³

et al. 2010

World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010

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In recent years, the potential impacts of climate variability and change on the hydrologic regime have received a great deal of attention from researchers. Review of hydrological data recorded in different parts of the world has provided evidence of regime-like or quasiperiodic climate behaviour and of systematic trends in key climate variables due to climate change and/or climate variability. It has been established that a changing climate will have notable impacts on the rainfall runoff process, and thus hydrologic time series (e.g., flood data) can no longer be assumed to be stationary. A failure to take such change/variability into account can lead to underestimation/overestimation of the design flood estimate, which in turn will have important implications on the design and operation of water infrastructures. This paper presents preliminary results from a study aimed to identify the nature of time trends in flood data in the Australian continent with the final objective of assessing the impacts of climatic change on regional floods in Australia. This research is being carried out as a part of the on-going revision of Australian Rainfall and Runoff -the national guide of design flood estimation in Australia. For this study, 491 suitable stations with flood data in the range of 30 to 97 years have been selected across the Australian continent. Two trend tests are applied: Mann-Kendall test and Spearman's Rho test to the data set. Preliminary trend analysis results show that about 30% of the selected stations show trends in annual maxima flood series data, with downward trends in the southern part of Australia and upward trends in the northern part. Further investigation is needed before any firm conclusion can be made about the trends in Australian flood data. Future work aims to address the influence of spatial correlation and autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in annual maximum flood series data in Australia and assess the relationship between the observed trends in annual maximum flood data and other meteorological variables.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Analysis of Trends in Australian Flood Data

Ishak¹,

Rahman²,

Westra³

et al. 2010

World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010

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“…In this case large areas can be protected in flood plain, upstream and local inflows, which percent can put together up to 50 % on the part of total inundated area in the river basin, due to spatial distribution of flood protection regulating reservoir. This approach accords with modern strategy of flood risk decreasing by management of flood discharge for all river basins by distributed system of DWRs with minimal impact on the environment [14,15].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 73%

Distributed System of Dams for Flood Protection of Urban Land to Ensure Sustainable Development

et al. 2016

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Abstract. The article considers innovative materials and structures for multipurpose flood protection self-regulated dams. Russian and foreign experiences in flood consequence, as well as conceptions for protection of urban land in the context of climate change are analyzed. Method for flood protection is proposed and is proved by creation of distributed system of self-regulated flood-control distributed system of dams in a river basin.

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“…Hydrological mean and low flow time series "may frequently display statistically significant serial correlation" (Yue et al, 2002). To account for this, the procedure of trend-free-pre-whitening was applied, which consists of 5 steps and is described in detail in Yue et al (2002) and Petrow and Merz (2009): first, linear trends are estimated for all time series, applying a robust slope estimator (after Sen, 1968, cited in Petrow andMerz, 2009). The linear trend is removed from the series in a second step by subtraction of the trend value in each time step.…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Stahl et al, 2010;Kundzewicz et al, 2005;Svensson et al, 2005;Lindström and Bergström, 2004;Robson, 2002). For Germany, Petrow and Merz (2009) found that flood events in 50-year runoff time series of several macroscale catchments reveal positive trends, especially in winter. Within the cooperation project KLIWA, changes in mean flow and hydrological extreme events in southern German catchments have been assessed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in runoff time series in Thuringia, Germany – Mann-Kendall trend test and extreme value analysis

Danneberg

2012

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract. Qualified knowledge about the impacts of climate change on hydrology is needed for the derivation of adaptation measures in the water sector. As temperature and precipitation time series in Thuringia, Germany of the last 50 years reveal that the climate is becoming warmer and drier in summer and wetter in winter, the question of changes in runoff time series arises. In the presented study, simple robust analysis approaches to detect changes in runoff characteristics are applied. A selection of 19 anthropogenically undisturbed Thuringian catchments with daily runoff time series of up to 78 years without gaps, covering different landscapes and climatic conditions in Thuringia, is made. Indicators of mean, high, and low runoff in the hydrological year, winter and summer are derived and tested for trends, using the non-

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Trends in flood magnitude, frequency and seasonality in Germany in the period 1951–2002

Cited by 294 publications

References 39 publications

Preliminary Analysis of Trends in Australian Flood Data

Preliminary Analysis of Trends in Australian Flood Data

Distributed System of Dams for Flood Protection of Urban Land to Ensure Sustainable Development

Changes in runoff time series in Thuringia, Germany – Mann-Kendall trend test and extreme value analysis

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