Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis

Guan, Peng; Wu, Wei; Huang, Desheng

doi:10.1186/s12199-018-0712-5

Cited by 61 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For example, the high-incidence districts and counties can be included in the key prevention and control plan, and the prevention and control education regarding BD should be strengthened in key groups such as children, students and farmers to prevent the spread of dysentery. The prediction of the incidence of infectious disease plays an important role in epidemic prevention and control as it provides decision-making support to relevant health sectors, enabling those sectors to formulate solutions and reduce the risk of an epidemic [33]. Therefore, this study has important significance in the field of disease research and the formulation of epidemic prevention and control strategies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2009 to 2016 and its incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors

Meng

Liu

Xie

et al. 2019

Environ Health Prev Med

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: This study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery (BD) caused by Shigella in Chongqing, China, and to establish incidence prediction models based on the correlation between meteorological factors and BD, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of BD.Methods: In this study, descriptive methods were employed to investigate the epidemiological distribution of BD. The Boruta algorithm was used to estimate the correlation between meteorological factors and BD incidence. The genetic algorithm (GA) combined with support vector regression (SVR) was used to establish the prediction models for BD incidence. Results: In total, 68,855 cases of BD were included. The incidence declined from 36.312/100,000 to 23.613/100,000, with an obvious seasonal peak from May to October. Males were more predisposed to the infection than females (the ratio was 1.118:1). Children < 5 years old comprised the highest incidence (295.892/100,000) among all age categories, and pre-education children comprised the highest proportion (34,658 cases, 50.335%) among all occupational categories. Eight important meteorological factors, including the highest temperature, average temperature, average air pressure, precipitation and sunshine, were correlated with the monthly incidence of BD. The obtained mean absolute percent error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE) and squared correlation coefficient (R 2 ) of GA_SVR_MONTH values were 0.087, 0.101 and 0.922, respectively.Conclusion: From 2009 to 2016, BD incidence in Chongqing was still high, especially in the main urban areas and among the male and pre-education children populations. Eight meteorological factors, including temperature, air pressure, precipitation and sunshine, were the most important correlative feature sets of BD incidence. Moreover, BD incidence prediction models based on meteorological factors had better prediction accuracies. The findings in this study could provide a panorama of BD in Chongqing and offer a useful approach for predicting the incidence of infectious disease. Furthermore, this information could be used to improve current interventions and public health planning.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2009 to 2016 and its incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors

Meng

Liu

Xie

et al. 2019

Environ Health Prev Med

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, brucellosis is endemic in China [4,5]. Human brucellosis remains a serious public health concern in China, with a 7.8% annual increase in the number of reported cases from 2007 to 2017 and more widespread natural foci [6,7]. From the perspective of geographical distribution, the affected regions in China gradually expanded from the northern traditional pasturing regions to the agricultural areas and finally to the southern coastal and southwestern areas [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2017 and an analysis of social and environmental factors

Peng

Huang

et al. 2020

Environ Health Prev Med

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: This study aimed to describe the changing distribution of human brucellosis between 2004 and 2017 in mainland China and seek scientific evidence of the relationship between socioeconomic , environmental, and ecological factors and human brucellosis incidence. Methods: The annual numbers of brucellosis cases and incidence rates from 31 provinces in mainland China between 2004 and 2017 were obtained from the Data-Center for China Public Health Science. The number of monthly brucellosis cases in 2018 was obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The electronic map of the People's Republic of China was downloaded from the National Earth System Science Data Sharing Platform. Human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and an inventory of cattle and sheep at the end of each year from 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Annual rainfall data from 31 provinces in the People's Republic of China from 2004 to 2017 were collected from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. The risk distribution and changing trends of human brucellosis were mapped with ArcGIS. A cluster analysis was employed to identify geographical areas and periods with statistically significant incidence rates. Multivariate linear regression was used to determine possible factors that were significantly correlated with the presence of human brucellosis cases. Results: Human brucellosis cases have spread throughout the whole country. Human brucellosis cases occurred mostly from March to August and were concentrated from April to July. The inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly correlated with the presence of brucellosis cases in mainland China. Conclusions: The geographical expansion of human brucellosis in mainland China was observed, so did the highincidence clusters between 2004 and 2017. Most of the cases were reported during the early spring to early summer (February-August). Results from the multivariate linear regression suggested that the inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly associated with the incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China.

show abstract

“…As for the assessment of 90-90-90 in 2019 and 2021, the ARIMA model and a Holt exponential smoothing (ES) method were used to predict the number of CLHIV, the diagnosed CLHIV, the diagnosed CLHIV receiving ART and the number of them achieving viral suppression in 2019 and 2021, respectively [21][22][23][24] . The ARIMA model is the most classic method for analyzing nonstationary time series.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

90-90-90 cascade analysis on reported CLHIV infected by mother-to-child transmission in Guangxi, China: a modeling study

Wang

Qin

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

women infected by HIV. It is necessary for children to explore the status of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on different initial CD4 counts in children with HIV infected by mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in Guangxi and to evaluate the progress towards the 90-90-90 targets proposed by UNAIDS/WHO. Based on a retrospective observational cohort of children with HIV infected from the Guangxi Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), the variables of all patients included viral loads, CD4 counts, laboratory results and WHO clinical staging of HIV/AIDS were collected. Several indicators were defined before analyzed: (1) diagnosis of MTCT: infants born to HIV-positive mothers who tested positive for HIV twice before 18 months; (2) ART initiation: the children who were enrolled in the treatment cohort and were still having HIV monitoring as of 6 months before date censored and (3) viral suppression: a recently viral load measurement that was less than 1000 copies per milliliter. The number of CLHIV in Guangxi was projected by using the estimates of the national HIV/ AIDS prevalence from China CDC. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Holt Exponential Smoothing (ES) model were used to predict the number of CLHIV, the diagnosed CLHIV, the diagnosed CLHIV receiving ART and the number of them achieving viral suppression, in 2019 and 2021, respectively. In this 14-year HIV/AIDS treatment cohort, 807 children who were HIV infected by MTCT were enrolled. The ARIMA and Holt ES models showed that by the end of 2019, 82.71% of all CLHIV in Guangxi knew their HIV status, 84.50% of those diagnosed had initiated ART, and 85.68% of those on ART had durable viral suppression. By the end of 2021, 93.51% of all CLHIV in Guangxi will know their HIV status, 84.28% of those diagnosed will have initiated antiretroviral therapy, and 85.83% of those on ART will have durable viral suppression. Therefore, in 2021, Guangxi fails to achieve the WHO/UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets for CLHIV, and there is still a wide time interval between the first HIVpositive diagnosis and ART initiation. National free antiretroviral treatment program (NFATP) requires strong enforcement to reduce the prevalence of later chronic diseases and complications.

show abstract

Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis

Cited by 61 publications

References 24 publications

Epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2009 to 2016 and its incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors

Epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2009 to 2016 and its incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors

Spatial-temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2017 and an analysis of social and environmental factors

90-90-90 cascade analysis on reported CLHIV infected by mother-to-child transmission in Guangxi, China: a modeling study

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About