Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwest Pacific in Relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

Chan, Johnny C. L.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0599:tcaitn>2.0.co;2

Cited by 392 publications

(319 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

294

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The interannual variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) have been extensively investigated in the past 2-3 decades (Chan 1985(Chan , 2000Lander 1994;Chen et al 1998;Wang and Chan 2002;Chia and Ropelewski 2002;Chu 2004;Camargo and Sobel 2005;Camargo et al 2007). Chan (1985) first examined the relationship between the WNP TC activity and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and found that the spectra of both TC annual counts and ENSO Index peak in the 3-3.5 year frequency band.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Warming and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Tao

Wang

et al. 2012

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, we have investigated contributions of tropical Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) between 1948 and 2010 and the involved physical mechanisms. Both ENSO and tropical IO Basin Mode (IOBM) warming are found to play important roles in modulating the WNP TC genesis frequency, but their effects are significantly different.The time series of seasonal empirical orthogonal function of tropical IO and tropical Pacific SST with trend and multidecadal variability removed are defined as the IOBM index and ENSO index, respectively. The results show that the IO warming year is usually the El Niño decaying year. The number of total TCs, especially weak TCs, decreases during the tropical IO warming year when an anomalous anticyclonic circulation is observed over the tropical Northwest Pacific off the equator. On the other hand, the number of intense TCs increases in the El Niño developing year because of the eastward shifts of both the western Pacific monsoon trough and the cyclonic shear of the equatorial westerlies, and thus the eastward shift of the main TC genesis region. It is also found that the relationship between ENSO and the frequency of intense TCs has a decadal variation. During 1968During -1987, the number of intense TCs was not related to ENSO with a correlation coefficient of only 0.19, while the correlation coefficient is 0. 63 and 0.73 during 1948-1967 and 1988-2007, respectively. The extent to which the WNP anomalous anticyclone is forced by IO warming is investigated by using the global climate model (European Centre Hamburg Model, ECHAM) with imposed SST anomalies over the tropical IO. The results suggest that the WNP anomalous anticyclone that develops from June to September results mainly from the northward shift of the tropical IO warming from boreal spring to boreal summer.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Warming and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Tao

Wang

et al. 2012

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A major factor affecting tropical cyclone frequency and tracks globally at the inter-annual timescale is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon (Chan, 1985;Wang and Chan;Ho et al, 2006). Over the Atlantic Basin, Goldenberg et al (2001) found that major hurricane activity is oscillatory, modulated by a multidecadal mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical systems from the southwest Indian Ocean making landfall over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa: a historical perspective

Malherbe

Engelbrecht

Landman

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT:The study provides perspective on the contribution of landfalling tropical systems (cyclones, depressions, storms and lows) from the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) towards rainfall over the eastern interior of southern Africa, over the period . Although these systems contribute to <10% of the annual rainfall occurring over the region, their relative contribution to local and widespread heavy rainfall events is shown to be highly significant. About 50% of widespread heavy rainfall events over northeastern South Africa are caused by landfalling tropical systems. Fourier analysis performed on the time series of rainfall occurring over northeastern South Africa in association with these systems reveals the existence of a quasi-18-year cycle. The cycle coincides with the well-known quasi-18-year Dyer-Tyson cycle in rainfall over the summer rainfall region of South Africa. These results suggest that atmospheric and surface conditions leading to wet phases of the Dyer-Tyson cycle also favour the landfall and subsequent westward movement of tropical systems from the SWIO over southern Africa -and their eventual contribution to rainfall over northeastern South Africa and southern Zimbabwe.

show abstract

“…The spatial impacts of ENSO on the local frequency and strike incidence of NW Pacific typhoons has, to our knowledge, not been reported in the refereed literature. However, Chan [1985Chan [ , 1990 shows that the frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Pacific between 140 ø and 160øE increases during E1 Nifio years, while tropical cyclone occurrence in the South China Sea increases in La Nifia years (see also Gray [1993] and Lander [1994]). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall

Saunders

Chandler

Merchant

et al. 2000

Geophysical Research Letters

119

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.Hurricanes are the United States' costliest natural disaster. Typhoons rank as the most expensive and deadly natural catastrophe affecting much of southeast Asia. A significant contributor to the year-to-year variability in intense tropical cyclone numbers in the north Atlantic and northwest Pacific is ENSO -the strongest interannual climate signal on the planet. We establish for the first time: (1) the spatial (0.5 degree grid) impacts of ENSO on the basin-wide occurrence and landfall strike incidence of hurricanes and typhoons; (2) the spatial (7.5 degree grid or US state level) statistical significance behind the different incidence rates in warm and cold ENSO episodes; and (3) the effect of strengthening ENSO on regional strike rates and significances (hurricanes only). Our data comprise 98 years (1900-97) for the Atlantic and 33 years (1965-97) for the NW Pacific. At the US state level, we find several regions where the difference in landfalling incidence rate between warm and cold ENSO regimes is significant at the 90% level or higher. Our findings offer promise of useful long-range predictability to seasonal forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones.

show abstract

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwest Pacific in Relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

Cited by 392 publications

References 0 publications

Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Warming and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Warming and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Tropical systems from the southwest Indian Ocean making landfall over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa: a historical perspective

Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About