Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

Abstract

Abstract. The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs).However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCat-SERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr -driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14 % (9 %) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980-2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

Oceanic response to the consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto (2019) in the Sargasso Sea

“…Hurricanes and typhoons (or more generally, tropical cyclones (TCs)) are among the most destructive natural phenomena on Earth leading to great social and economic losses (Welker and Faust, 2013;Lenzen et al, 2019), as well as ecological perturbations of both marine and terrestrial ecosystems (Fiedler et al, 2013;de Beurs et al, 2019;Lin et al, 2020). Given the devastating effects of TCs, the question of how they will be affected by climate change has received considerable scientific attention (Henderson-Sellers et al, 1998;Knutson et al, 2010;Walsh et al, 2016).…”

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

“…North Pacific | tropical cyclones | natural hazard | poleward migration | dendrochronology T ropical cyclones (TCs) have significant social and economic impacts (1,2) that are expected to strengthen further (3,4) in tandem with the globally observed trend of their increasing intensity over the last few decades (5,6). The current understanding of past variation and future changes in global TC activity (especially frequency, intensity, and track directions) is of relatively higher confidence; however, the region-specific changes are not yet well quantified (7).…”

The Swiss flood and landslide damage database: Normalisation and trends

“…The second highest monthly damage occurred in September 1993, when 3 days of persistent and extensive rainfall caused devastating damage mainly in Upper Valais (Hilker et al, ). In October 2000, long‐lasting rainfall caused damage (CHF 669 million) and fatalities in the southern part of Switzerland (cantons Valais and Ticino), whereas in May 1999 precipitation and snow melt led to inundation along rivers and lakes in the north of Switzerland that led to CHF 580 million in damage (Hilker et al, ; Welker & Faust, ). With normalisation (GDP‐approach), the highest median values still appear from June to August, but the second highest maximum value occurs in September (CHF 1,552 million).…”

“…After normalising economic damage data by considering societal change and economic development, no long‐term increasing trend was found for floods in Europe (Barredo, ; Paprotny et al, ), Spain (Barredo, Sauri, & Llasat, ) and the United States (Downton & Pielke Jr., ); for hurricanes in the United States (Klotzbach, Bowen, Pielke, & Bell, ; Pielke Jr. et al, ; Pielke Jr. & Landsea, ); for tropical cyclones in the United States (Schmidt, Kemfert, & Hoppe, ) and China (Fischer, Su, & Wen, ); for tornadoes in the United States (Simmons, Sutter, & Pielke, ); and for several processes at the global level (Neumayer & Barthel, ; Visser, Petersen, & Ligtvoet, ). Some studies indicated a trend over time (as in Gall, Borden, Emrich, & Cutter, ; Welker & Faust, ; Cinco et al, ), but Bouwer () and Neumayer and Barthel () argued that one needs to be careful when attributing such a trend to anthropogenic climate change because natural climate variability could provide an alternative explanation. Bouwer () analysed 22 disaster loss studies and found that, after normalisation for changes in population and wealth, climate change has had no significant impact on losses from natural disasters.…”