Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations

Lorenz, David J.; DeWeaver, Eric

doi:10.1029/2006jd008087

Cited by 389 publications

(482 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Hu et al (2000) used a single CGCM simulation to demonstrate that the jet stream over the North Pacific would shift poleward due to an increase in transient eddy activity. Their result is consistent with the poleward shift of the zonal mean jet (e.g., Yin 2005;Lorenz and DeWeaver 2007;Lu et al 2008). However, Hu et al (2000) was a single-model study and future changes in other regions, such as the Indochina peninsula and the South China Sea, were not the focus of their study.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 77%

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Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Harada

Hirahara

Hagiya

et al. 2013

SOLA

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The winter response of the Asian jet stream to global warming is investigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset under the RCP4.5 scenario. We first evaluate model performances in reproducing the current climatology in the upper troposphere and select the best 27 models. A multi-model ensemble projection by the selected models indicates that the jet stream over the Indochina peninsula and the South China Sea is intensified on its equatorial side in the late 21st century, while the jet stream shifts poleward over the Eurasian continent and the North Pacific. The strengthening of the jet stream on the south side is associated with cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomalies in the upper (lower) troposphere over the southern part of China and decreased upper tropospheric divergence over the Maritime Continent. The strength of the upper tropospheric divergence and the amplitude of the anticylonic eddy streamfunction are strongly correlated. These findings suggest that future changes in the jet stream are related to the weakening of a Matsuno-Gill response to tropical heating.(Citation: Harada, M., S. Hirahara, S. Hagiya, H. Murai, Y. Oikawa, and S. Maeda, 2013: Intensification of the south side of the Asian jet stream during the northern winter in CMIP5 models. SOLA, 9, 94−97,

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…"M" indicates the multi-model ensemble of the 27 good models (see detail in Section 3). The Taylor score here is defined in Section 3. the zonal mean jet stream (Yin 2005;Lorenz and DeWeaver 2007;Lu et al 2008). In addition, the jet stream over the Indochina peninsula and the South China Sea is strengthened on its equatorial side.…”

Section: Future Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Harada

Hirahara

Hagiya

et al. 2013

SOLA

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“…Variations in the UTLS jets influence influence surface weather patterns (e.g., see reviews by Lucas et al, 2014;Harnik et al, 2016) such as rainfall changes (e.g., Price et al, 1998;Raible et al, 2004;Karnauskas and Ummenhofer, 2014;Huang et al, 2015;Xie et al, 2015;Delworth and Zeng, 2014;Bai et al, 2016), destructive wind storms (e.g., Pinto et al, 2009Pinto et al, , 2014Gómara et al, 2014;Messori and Caballero, 2015), and extreme temperature events (e.g., Francis and Vavrus, 2012;Harnik et al, 2016). Moreover, transport processes that alter the extent and consequences of extratropical stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) are closely linked to the tropopause and jets, which are themselves sensitive to climate change and ozone depletion (e.g., Seidel and Randel, 2006;Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007;Polvani et al, 2011;WMO, 2011;Hudson, 2012;Grise et al, 2013;Waugh et al, 2015). Both tropospheric and total column ozone vary with tropopause height and STE near the UTLS jets (e.g., Olsen et al, 2002;Neu et al, 2014), as well as with natural modes of variability such as ENSO that alter the jets (Hudson, 2012;Lin et al, 2014Lin et al, , 2015Olsen et al, 2016, and references therein).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The representation of upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric (UTLS) jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014. Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex), and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications), ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis), JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) are compared with those in MERRA-2. Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing. Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution – for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution) typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis) a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution) shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses. Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations. Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places. Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in UTLS jet and multiple tropopause distributions. Quantitative differences may, however, have important consequences for transport and variability studies. Our results highlight the importance of considering reanalyses differences in UTLS studies, especially in relation to resolution and model grids; this is particularly critical when using high-resolution reanalyses as an observational reference for evaluating global chemistry–climate models.

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“…[7] One of the robust changes in atmospheric circulation simulated by many climate models is a poleward shift of jet stream [Lorenz and Deweaver, 2007]. This poleward shift indicates that the westerlies increase on poleward side and decrease on equatorward of the jet stream.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of synoptic eddy feedback on polar climate responses to the anthropogenic forcing

Kug

Choi

Jin

et al. 2010

Geophysical Research Letters

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Amplified polar warming and moistening under global warming are critical issues for the climate changes. The authors find that a poleward shift of the westerly jet stream and associated synoptic eddy feedback play a critical role in enhancing polar warming and moistening. Namely, the mean circulation changes due to anthropogenic forcing lead to the changes in storm feedbacks, which reinforce again climate responses, particularly the polar responses such as the enhanced polar warming and moistening. It is demonstrated here that the storm feedback can be explained by a simple rule based on the mean circulation change. This rule can be used for understanding other regional climate responses to the anthropogenic forcing.

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Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations

Cited by 389 publications

References 16 publications

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

Role of synoptic eddy feedback on polar climate responses to the anthropogenic forcing

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