Tsunami hazard scenarios in the Adriatic Sea domain

Abstract

Abstract. The tsunami phenomenon is mainly detected in oceanic domains but it can also occur in small basins as the Adriatic Sea. The presence of great waves has been recorded a few times in the past centuries on the Adriatic shorelines, therefore this suggests the idea to evaluate which could be the maximum amplitude reached by a possible future tsunami event. In this framework we calculate several synthetic mareograms applying to the shallow water basin case both the theory of modal summation by Panza et al. (2000) and the theory of the Green's function by Yanovskaya et al. (2003). The first is applied to the case of tsunamis generated by an offshore source, the second to the case of tsunamis generated by an inland source. Both kinds of tsunamigenic events did already occur in the Adriatic domain, as witnessed in many catalogues (Caputo and Faita, 1984;Bedosti and Caputo, 1986;Tinti et al., 2004) and also pointed out in the recent "Catalogue of reported tsunami events in the Adriatic Sea" (see Appendix).We calculate synthetic mareograms varying those parameters which are the most influencing in tsunami generation, such as magnitude, focal depth, water layer thickness, etc., in order to estimate the expected values of tsunami maximum amplitude and arrival time, in the whole Adriatic basin, for the selected scenarios.

Scenarios of Earthquake-Generated Tsunamis for the Italian Coast of the Adriatic Sea

“…1). It has been struck several times by tsunamis (e.g., AMBRASEYS, 1962;CAPUTO and FAITA, 1984;PAPAZACHOS and DIMITRIU, 1991;SOLOVIEV et al, 2000;MARAMAI et al, 2007;TINTI et al, 2007; see also PAULATTO et al, 2007 for a complete review), most often along the coasts of the Gargano promontory (DE MARTINI et al, 2003;TINTI et al, 2004). The northwestern portion of the Adriatic basin is also the most vulnerable because of its large low-topography coastal area extending for over 150 km.…”

Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea

“…[4] Tsunami hazard has traditionally been studied by simulating the effect of "worst-case" or "most credible" scenario events with little emphasis on the probability of the scenario events [e.g., Tinti and Armigliato, 2003;Hébert et al, 2005;Paulatto et al, 2007;Lorito et al, 2008;Shaw et al, 2008]. Although such scenarios can be extremely useful for response planning, knowledge of the probability of occurrence of an event is crucial for planning risk mitigation efforts (especially when considering multiple hazards), for defining building design specifications and for insurance pricing.…”

Historic tsunami in Britain since AD 1000: a review

“…While this amplitude appears small, similar uplift of the seabed in confined bodies of water could generate tsunami that can not only cause noticeable effects, but also explain some of the reports of tsunami following small earthquakes (e.g. Paulatto et al, 2007). Ground waves associated with the 1884 Colchester earthquake are estimated to have been larger than this, which may be due to its shallow epicenter.…”

“…Near-coastal low-magnitude seismic events: relatively low-magnitude earthquakes with epicentres in nearcoastal settings generated small tsunami on at least two occasions, in 1884 in eastern England (4.6 -5.5 M L , Colne and Thames estuaries) and 1892 in South Wales (5.1 M L , Milford Haven). A mechanism for tsunami generation is problematic in these cases, but substantial ground waves were observed in the 1884 event that would have led to impulsive displacement of the seabed locally, which elsewhere have been linked to intense tsunami (Paulatto et al, 2007). Sea disturbance associated with a small earthquake (local magnitude, M L , 4.0) was also observed in 1859 in southwest England that may indicate the sensitivity of shallow water settings to small near-coastal earthquakes.…”

“…However, a recent evaluation of tsunami in the Adriatic Sea, a generally shallow water -intraplate setting, shows that intense local tsunami have been generated historically by earthquakes typically with magnitudes less than 6 (Paulatto et al, 2007). They also report that tsunamigenic earthquake epicentres have been located inland as well as offshore.…”