Tsunami Inundation and Maritime Hazard Modelling for a Maximum Credible Tsunami Scenario in Southeast Tasmania, Australia

Kain, Claire; Lewarn, B; Rigby, Edward H.; Mazengarb, Colin

doi:10.1007/s00024-019-02384-0

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…If few scenarios can be simulated within the computational budget, a common alternative is to select offshore PTHA scenarios with wave heights matching a specified exceedance-rate at some offshore location near the site of interest (e.g. Dall'Osso et al, 2014;Lynett et al, 2016;Kain, 2022;Giblin et al, 2022). This information is readily available in the offshore PTHA (Figure 1D).…”

Section: The 'Few Scenarios' Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The robustness of this approach is improved using multiple scenarios for each exceedance-rate (e.g. Kain, 2022;Giblin et al, 2022). But this increases the computational expense, and it remains unclear how much results would change if using a different set of scenarios, or how well they approximate the 'all scenarios' solution.…”

Section: The 'Few Scenarios' Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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From Offshore to Onshore Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment With Quantified Uncertainty: Efficient Monte Carlo Techniques

Davies

2023

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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Offshore probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs) are increasingly available for earthquake generated tsunamis. They provide standardized representations of tsunami scenarios, their uncertain occurrence-rates, and models of the deep ocean waveforms. To quantify onshore hazards it is natural to combine this information with a site-specific inundation model, but this is computationally challenging to do accurately, especially if accounting for uncertainties in the offshore PTHA. This study reviews an efficient Monte Carlo method recently proposed to solve this problem. The efficiency comes from preferential sampling of scenarios that are likely important near the site of interest, using a user-defined importance measure derived from the offshore PTHA. The theory of importance sampling enables this to be done without biasing the final results. Techniques are presented to help design and test Monte Carlo schemes for a site of interest (before inundation modelling) and to quantify errors in the final results (after inundation modelling). The methods are illustrated with examples from studies in Tongatapu and Western Australia.

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Section: The 'Few Scenarios' Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The 'Few Scenarios' Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

From Offshore to Onshore Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment With Quantified Uncertainty: Efficient Monte Carlo Techniques

Davies

2023

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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“…The model includes an operator module that simulates the removal of sand associated with the overtopping of a sand dune by sea waves. The operator simulates the erosion, collapse, fluidization and removal of sand from the dune system (Kain et al, 2020). This option is enabled only in the undefended scenario for Cesenatico, where non-reinforced sand dunes are prone to erosion.…”

Section: Inundation Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Amadio

Essenfelder

Bagli³

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The combined effect of global sea level rise and land subsidence phenomena poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Coastal flooding events are expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the population and economic activities are located along the low-lying coastal plain of the North Adriatic coast, one of the most sensitive areas to relative sea level changes. Over the last half a century, this stretch of coast has experienced a significant rise in relative sea level, the main component of which was land subsidence; in the forthcoming decades, climate-induced sea level rise is expected to become the first driver of coastal inundation hazard. We propose an assessment of flood hazard and risk linked with extreme sea level scenarios, under both historical conditions and sea level rise projections in 2050 and 2100. We run a hydrodynamic inundation model on two pilot sites located along the North Adriatic coast of Emilia-Romagna: Rimini and Cesenatico. Here, we compare alternative extreme sea level scenarios accounting for the effect of planned and hypothetical seaside renovation projects against the historical baseline. We apply a flood damage model to estimate the potential economic damage linked to flood scenarios, and we calculate the change in expected annual damage according to changes in the relative sea level. Finally, damage reduction benefits are evaluated by means of cost–benefit analysis. Results suggest an overall profitability of the investigated projects over time, with increasing benefits due to increased probability of intense flooding in the near future.

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“…ANUGA includes also an operator module that simulates the removal of sand associated with over-topping of a sand dune by sea waves, which is applied to explore scenarios where a sand dune barrier provides protection for the land behind. The operator simulates the erosion, collapse, fluidisation and removal of sand from the dune system (Kain et al 2020); the dune erosion mechanism relies on a relationship based on Froehlich (2002). This option is enabled only in the undefended scenario for Cesenatico, where non-reinforced sand dunes are prone to erosion.…”

Section: Inundation Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Amadio¹,

Essenfelder²,

Bagli³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The combined effect of global sea level rise and local subsidence phenomena poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Flooding events are expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the population and economic activities are located along the coast of the peninsula, although risk of inundation is not uniformly distributed. The low-lying coastal plain of Northeast Italy is the most sensitive to relative sea level changes. Over the last half a century, the entire north-eastern Italian coast has experienced a significant rise in relative sea level, the main component of which was land subsidence. In the forthcoming decades, sea level rise is expected to become the first driver of coastal inundation hazard. We propose an assessment of flood hazard and risk linked with extreme sea level scenarios, both under historical conditions and sea level rise projections at 2050 and 2100. We run a hydrodynamic inundation model on two pilot sites located in the North Adriatic Sea along the Emilia-Romagna coast: Rimini and Cesenatico. Here, we compare alternative risk scenarios accounting for the effect of planned and hypothetical seaside renovation projects against the historical baseline. We apply a flood damage model developed for Italy to estimate the potential economic damage linked to flood scenarios and we calculate the change in expected annual damage according to changes in the relative sea level. Finally, damage reduction benefits are evaluated by means of cost-benefit analysis. Results suggest an overall profitability of the investigated projects over time, with increasing benefits due to increased probability of intense flooding in the next future.

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Tsunami Inundation and Maritime Hazard Modelling for a Maximum Credible Tsunami Scenario in Southeast Tasmania, Australia

Cited by 11 publications

References 17 publications

From Offshore to Onshore Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment With Quantified Uncertainty: Efficient Monte Carlo Techniques

From Offshore to Onshore Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment With Quantified Uncertainty: Efficient Monte Carlo Techniques

Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

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