Current approaches for assessing large‐scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river‐floodplain systems, and socioeconomic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. However, reliable risk estimates are required for prioritizing national investments in flood risk mitigation or for appraisal and management of insurance portfolios. We review several examples of process interactions and highlight their importance in shaping spatiotemporal risk patterns. We call for a fundamental redesign of the approaches used for large‐scale flood risk assessment. They need to be capable to form a basis for large‐scale flood risk management and insurance policies worldwide facing the challenge of increasing risks due to climate and global change. In particular, implementation of the European Flood Directive needs to be adjusted for the next round of flood risk mapping and development of flood risk management plans focusing on methods accounting for more process interactions in flood risk systems. WIREs Water 2018, 5:e1266. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1266
This article is categorized under:
Science of Water > Water Extremes
Science of Water > Hydrological Processes
Engineering Water > Planning Water
A detailed delineation of flood-prone areas over large regions represents a challenge that cannot be easily solved with today's resources. The main limitations lie in algorithms and hardware, but also costs, scarcity and sparsity of data and our incomplete knowledge of how inundation events occur in different river floodplains. We showcase the implementation of a data-driven web application for regional analyses and detailed (i.e., tens of meters) mapping of floodplains, based on (a) the synthesis of hydrogeomorphic features into a morphological descriptor and (b) its classification to delineate flood-prone areas. We analysed the skill of the descriptor and the performance of the mapping method for European rivers. The web application can be effectively used for delineating flood-prone areas, reproducing the reference flood maps with a classification skill of 88.59% for the 270 major river basins analysed across Europe and 84.23% for the 64 sub-catchments of the Po River.
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