Tsunami risk perception in Central and Southern Italy

Abstract

Abstract. The Tsunami Warning Center of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting, since 2018, the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy. Between 2018 and 2021 the semi-structured questionnaire on the perception of tsunami risk was administered to a sample of 5,842 citizens residing in 450 Italian coastal municipalities, representative of more than 12 million people. The survey was conducted with the Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) methodology, described in Cerase et al. (2019) who published the results of the first pilot survey (about 1,000 interviews). The large sample and the socio-demographic stratification give an excellent representation of the resident population in the surveyed Italian coastal municipalities. Moreover, in 2021 an optimized version of the questionnaire was also administered via Telepanel (a tool for collecting proportional and representative opinions of citizens) representative of the Italian population, which included 1,500 people distributed throughout the country. In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions, and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the investigations (Rome, Naples, Bari, Reggio Calabria and Catania). Data analysis reveals heterogeneous and generally low tsunami risk perception. Some seaside, in fact, show a good perception of tsunami risk while others, such as in Apulia and Molise, reveal a lower perception, most likely due to the long time elapsed since the last event and the lack of memory. We do not find relevant differences related to the socio-demographic characteristics (age, gender) of the sample, whereas the education degree appears to affect people’s perception. The survey shows that the respondents’ predominant source of information on tsunamis is the television and other media sources (such us newspapers, books, films, internet etc.) while the official sources (e.g. civil protection, local authorities, universities and research institutes) do not contribute significantly. Also, we found an interesting difference in people’s understanding of the words tsunami and maremoto, the local term commonly used in Italy until the 2004 Sumatra event, which should be taken into account in scientific and risk communication. The nationwide sample shows lower tsunami risk perception compared to the average of the coastal sample, confirming the need for thorough information campaigns directed to tourists. Our results are being used to drive our communication strategy aimed at reducing tsunami risk in Italy, to activate dissemination and educational programs (data driven), to fill the data gap on tsunami risk perception in the NEAMTWS area, and to implement multilevel Civil Protection actions (national and local, top-down and bottom-up). Not least, outputs can address a better development of the Tsunami Ready program in Italy.

Tsunami risk perception, a state-of-the-art review with a focus in the NEAM region

“…The review presented in this paper highlights some relevant points related to people's perception of tsunami risk and the way in which this kind of research can be useful for risk management. First, before planning tsunami Second, as we have seen in this review, tsunami risk is not homogeneously perceived even within the same community, as it is affected by different socio-demographic variables such as gender, age, education level, average income and presence of children in the household/family (see Alam, 2016;Wei et al, 2017;Akbar et al, 2020;Buylova et al, 2020;Dhellemmes et al, 2021), as well as hazard proximity and social memory of past events (see Fraser et al, 2016;Arias et al, 2017;Cerase et al, 2019;Cugliari et al, 2021;Cugliari et al, 2022). These variables are directly or indirectly related to social stratification (e.g., owning a house close to the coastline) as well as to particular risk cultures or worldviews co-existing in the same society (e.g.…”

“…: egalitarian, hierarchical, individualists and fatalists) (Mamadouh, 1999;Douglas, 2007) which are likely to result in significant differences within a given population; in general, we can hypothesize that those who feel to have more to lose have a higher risk perception than those who feel to have less, thinking to be safe from tsunamis. Furthermore, these differences could be very difficult to understand by people with limited access to scientific knowledge (Cerase et al, 2019;Cugliari et al, 2021;Cugliari et al, 2022) and by some target populations such as tourists from other countries that have never experienced or even heard about such events and may be totally unaware of tsunami risk in their holiday locations, thus requiring additional resources to develop effective risk mitigation strategies (Arce et al, 2017;Hall et al, 2019).…”

“…Tsunami local history: In Indonesia since 2000 to date (2022), there have been nine disastrous tsunamis that caused more than 173,000 casualties. The major tsunamis that affected Sri Lanka are 4 (1883, 1907, 2004 and 2005) with more than 35,300 casualties.…”

“…Tsunami local history: One of the countries most affected by tsunamis in its history is Japan. From 2000 to the present (2022), the catalog reports 36 events, of various magnitudes, for which sea level changes were recorded. Among them it is necessary to mention the 2003 tsunami (which caused two casualties) and the 2011 tsunami (which caused 18,428 casualties).…”

Tsunami Risk and Alert Perceptions in Five Municipalities bordering the French Mediterranean Basin

“…However, they also observed a low transfer of information and experiences, from generation to generation. To complete this sample, Cugliari et al (2022b) recently collected questionnaires in eastern Sicily (614) and in south-northern Italy (4207), to have 5,842 completed questionnaires that are representative of 8 regions and 37 provinces. 60% of the respondents declared the Adriatic and nearest seas are 'unlikeness' of a tsunami, whereas 20 % noted the Tyrrhenian Sea, Strait of Sicily, Sea of Sardinian, or Sardinian Channel.…”