2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.10.001
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Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model

Abstract: Background Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24 and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. Methods We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states … Show more

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Cited by 35 publications
(30 citation statements)
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“…On the other hand, the lack of relevant immunity markers makes it difficult to develop a protective vaccine. In this regard, broader vaccine effects analysis, including mucosal immunity induction, antibody responses, and nonconventional T-cells responses, might also help to explain some protective conditions [2], such as BCG vaccination [32], latent infection [33,34], and sterile immunity mediated by antibodies [35]. Thus, the registration of TB vaccine candidates after the relevant safety evaluations might be a straightforward way to speed up initiations of post-registration studies of efficiency in specific but efficiently large groups of people.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…On the other hand, the lack of relevant immunity markers makes it difficult to develop a protective vaccine. In this regard, broader vaccine effects analysis, including mucosal immunity induction, antibody responses, and nonconventional T-cells responses, might also help to explain some protective conditions [2], such as BCG vaccination [32], latent infection [33,34], and sterile immunity mediated by antibodies [35]. Thus, the registration of TB vaccine candidates after the relevant safety evaluations might be a straightforward way to speed up initiations of post-registration studies of efficiency in specific but efficiently large groups of people.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, preventive therapy is only effective in the first two years after infection and fails to reduce TB incidence if applied without risk-stratification 4,44 . Counterintuitively, recent epidemiological data suggest that individuals who have been treated for active TB are more susceptible to re-infection and progress more rapidly following re-infection, suggesting that clearing latent infection with preventive therapy might be counterproductive in a high transmission setting 15,45 .…”
Section: Several Mouse Models Demonstrate That Infection or Inoculatimentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Both historical cohort studies and contemporary epidemiological studies demonstrate that LTBI is protective against re-infection 3,15 . The phenomenon of a low-grade infection protecting against subsequent infections with the same pathogen has led to the development of almost all live vaccines currently in use, including those based on bacteria (BCG) or experimental vaccines against parasites (Leishmania) 16 .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Factors associated with elevated risk of progression to TB include age, sex, HIV (10,11), and especially being in recent contact with a patient with active pulmonary TB (12,13). A biomarker that identifies household contacts (HHCs) who will progress to TB would provide an opportunity to arrest disease progression through targeted prophylactic intervention (14,15).…”
Section: Tuberculosis (Tb) Caused By Infection Withmentioning
confidence: 99%