Türk ekonomisinde bütçe açığı ve enflasyon ilişkisinin sınır testi yaklaşımı ile eş-bütünleşme analizi

Abstract

In this study, the long-term relationship between budget deficits and inflation in the Turkish economy is analyzed by monthly data covering the period 2006:01-2018:10. Econometric methods used in the study; Expanded Dickey Fuller, Phillips-Perron an Ng-Perron unit root tests and a bonds testing approach. The main findings of the study; in the long term inflation between dolar exchange rate and M3 money supply statistically significant positive direction; a negative direction with the budget balance is to deternine relationship. In other words, although an increase in budget deficits, inflation has been on an upward trend; may tend to decrease with an increase in the budget surplus.

The effect of inflation on the budget deficit in Turkiye: Evidence from cointegration test with multiple structural breaks

“…In other words, increasing budget deficits increases the inflation rate. The inference in question, as obtained from various country examples by Narayan et al (2006), Devapriya and Ichihashi (2012), Isaq and Mohsin (2015), Nguyen (2015), and Arjomand et al (2016), has been reached through studies conducted within the scope of Turkiye by Metin (1995Metin ( , 1998, Akçay et al (1996), Günaydın (2004), Oktayer (2010), Bayrak and Kanca (2013), Bedir and Tural (2014), İpek and Akar (2016), Öruç (2016), Alper (2018), Maraş andDumrul (2019), andErdil Şahin (2019). Contrary to the aforementioned studies, no study has been found that concludes that increasing the budget deficit reduces the inflation rate.…”