Turnout in the Municipal Elections of March 2020 and Excess Mortality During the Covid-19 Epidemic in France

Bertoli, Simone; Guichard, Lucas; Marchetta, Francesca

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3627035

Cited by 22 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…There were changes to the campaign procedures and timing of elections, which we elaborate below.5 In-person voting could also lead to increased Covid-19 case rates(Bertoli, Guichard and Marchetta, 2020;Flanders, Flanders and Goodman, 2020). Brazil did not hold any elections during the pandemic prior to the first round of municipal elections in November 2020.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

Constantino

Cooperman

Moreira

2021

Social Science Quarterly

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We investigate the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior. Specifically, we assess the impact of Covid-19 incidence rates, and the impact of temporal and spatial proximity to the crisis, on voter turnout in the 2020 Brazilian municipal elections. Methods: We use Ordinary Least Squares and Spatial Durbin Error models to evaluate sub-national variation in municipallevel Covid-19 incidence and voter turnout. We include controls for political, economic, health, and state context. Results: Ceteris paribus, increasing deaths in the month leading up to the election from 0.01 to 1 per 1000 people is associated with a 5 percentage point decrease in turnout; higher cases and deaths earlier in the pandemic are generally associated with higher turnout. Covid-19 incidence rates in nearby municipalities affect local turnout in the same directions. Conclusion: Higher Covid-19 incidence near the time of the election decreases voter turnout, while incidence farther from the election increases voter turnout.Globalization and climate change have increased the frequency and extent of extreme weather, financial and economic crises, and disease outbreaks (Baer and Singer, 2016). These multidimensional crises simultaneously encompass society, politics, and the environment (Gills, 2010), often with profound repercussions for democracy. They can also act as "stress tests," revealing the capacity and willingness of elected officials to respond and the political psychology and behavior of voters. The Covid-19 pandemic-a health and economic crisis-has had profound effects on the material and physical security of citizens, on psychological factors such as anxiety and risk perceptions (Dryhurst et al., 2020), and on public opinion and trust in science and political institutions (Bol et al., 2020;Schraff, 2020;Agley, 2020). The myriad impacts of the pandemic are likely to affect voter turnout and democratic accountability (de Koeijer and Parkinson, 2020;Achen and Bartels, 2017).The dynamics and motivations of political behavior during a crisis are complex. Changes in the perceived costs and benefits of voting can either increase or decrease turnout (Aldrich, 1993), and vote shares can shift as voters punish (Cole, Healy and Werker, 2012) or reward incumbents (Cole, Healy and Werker, 2012;Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011). While an election offers an opportunity to hold elected officials 2210

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

Constantino

Cooperman

Moreira

2021

Social Science Quarterly

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“…Using an instrumental variable approach to predict turnout at the very local level, they report a qualitatively strong impact of the election on excess mortality. However, Bach et al (2021) provide evidence that results reported by Bertoli et al (2020) are driven by measurement error. Using individual level data and various econometrics methods, Bach et al (2021) show that local politicians who participated in the 2020 French municipal elections did not face a higher mortality risk after the elections.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…This interesting finding is hard to interpret as it is impossible to disentangle how much of the change in epidemiological trajectories is due to the higher turnout in the first round of the election relatively to the holding of a second round. Bertoli et al (2020) study the effect of the French municipal elections on excess mortality at home in the subset of French municipalities that have no hospital. Using an instrumental variable approach to predict turnout at the very local level, they report a qualitatively strong impact of the election on excess mortality.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19

Cassan

Sangnier

2022

J Popul Econ

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Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department's epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11% of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating.

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“…Dalam studi di negara bagian Amerika Serikat, Wingconsin, Cotti, et al (2020) membuktikan adanya peningkatan kasus positif Covid-19 sebesar 18% akibat penambahan 10% pemilih di setiap lokasi pemungutan suara. Bertoli, et al (2020) dan Cassan dan Sangnier (2020) juga membuktikan adanya pemungutan suara di Prancis mengakibatkan 15% penambahan pasien rawat inap akibat terinfeksi Covid-19. Begitupun dengan pemilihan umum di Republic Ceko, dimana infeksi Covid-19 baru tumbuh secara signifikan lebih cepat di wilayah yang melakukan pemilihan umum dibandingkan dengan daerah yang tidak melakukan pemilihan umum (Palguta, et al, 2021).…”

Section: Gambar 1 Perubahan Kasus Covid-19 Setelah Penyelengaraan Pemiluunclassified

Dampak Pelaksanaan Pilkada Tahun 2020 Terhadap Banyaknya Kasus Infeksi Covid-19 di Indonesia

Austriana¹,

Riyanto

2022

JDEP

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Pemilihan Kepada Daerah (Pilkada) tahun 2020 yang dilaksanakan di tengah pandemi Covid-19 sangat berpotensi menambah kasus orang yang terinfeksi Covid-19. Hal ini karena di setiap tahapan Pilkada selalu berpotensi menimbulkan interaksi banyak orang dalam kerumunan massa. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak pelaksanaan Pemilihan Kepada Daerah (Pilkada) tahun 2020 terhadap peningkatan kasus infeksi Covid-19 di Indonesia. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan Difference in Difference (DID) untuk menganalisis data rata-rata harian kasus terkonfirmasi Covid-19 dari 257 kabupaten/kota yang menyelenggarakan Pilkada maupun yang tidak menyelenggarakan Pilkada pada periode Juni hingga Desember 2020. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa wilayah perkotaan yang menyelenggarakan Pilkada tahun 2020 mengalami penambahan rata-rata harian kasus terkonfirmasi Covid-19 yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan wilayah perdesaan (kabupaten) yang menyelenggarakan Pilkada, maupun kabupaten/kota yang tidak menyelenggarakan Pilkada.

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Turnout in the Municipal Elections of March 2020 and Excess Mortality During the Covid-19 Epidemic in France

Cited by 22 publications

References 5 publications

Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19

Dampak Pelaksanaan Pilkada Tahun 2020 Terhadap Banyaknya Kasus Infeksi Covid-19 di Indonesia

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