No abstract

We investigate the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior. Specifically, we assess the impact of Covid-19 incidence rates, and the impact of temporal and spatial proximity to the crisis, on voter turnout in the 2020 Brazilian municipal elections. Methods: We use Ordinary Least Squares and Spatial Durbin Error models to evaluate sub-national variation in municipallevel Covid-19 incidence and voter turnout. We include controls for political, economic, health, and state context. Results: Ceteris paribus, increasing deaths in the month leading up to the election from 0.01 to 1 per 1000 people is associated with a 5 percentage point decrease in turnout; higher cases and deaths earlier in the pandemic are generally associated with higher turnout. Covid-19 incidence rates in nearby municipalities affect local turnout in the same directions. Conclusion: Higher Covid-19 incidence near the time of the election decreases voter turnout, while incidence farther from the election increases voter turnout.Globalization and climate change have increased the frequency and extent of extreme weather, financial and economic crises, and disease outbreaks (Baer and Singer, 2016). These multidimensional crises simultaneously encompass society, politics, and the environment (Gills, 2010), often with profound repercussions for democracy. They can also act as "stress tests," revealing the capacity and willingness of elected officials to respond and the political psychology and behavior of voters. The Covid-19 pandemic-a health and economic crisis-has had profound effects on the material and physical security of citizens, on psychological factors such as anxiety and risk perceptions (Dryhurst et al., 2020), and on public opinion and trust in science and political institutions (Bol et al., 2020;Schraff, 2020;Agley, 2020). The myriad impacts of the pandemic are likely to affect voter turnout and democratic accountability (de Koeijer and Parkinson, 2020;Achen and Bartels, 2017).The dynamics and motivations of political behavior during a crisis are complex. Changes in the perceived costs and benefits of voting can either increase or decrease turnout (Aldrich, 1993), and vote shares can shift as voters punish (Cole, Healy and Werker, 2012) or reward incumbents (Cole, Healy and Werker, 2012;Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011). While an election offers an opportunity to hold elected officials 2210

RESUMO Analisamos o tempo de permanência dos nomeados para cargos de Direção e Assessoramento Superior (DAS) do Executivo federal brasileiro, no período de 1999 a 2017. A duração mediana em um cargo DAS é de 25 meses e, no alto escalão burocrático, 23 meses. Cerca de 30% dos nomeados não completa o primeiro ano de trabalho e menos de 30% dos nomeados permanece no mesmo cargo por todo um mandato presidencial. A estabilidade dos ministros, ser filiado a partidos, pertencer às carreiras federais, e o local de exercício do cargo influenciam as chances de permanência dos nomeados. Os resultados contribuem para deslindar a lógica de funcionamento do Executivo federal brasileiro e sua relação com a organização federativa e partidária. Contribuem também refletir sobre os meios de ampliar as capacidades de planejamento e a qualidade do ciclo de planejamento das políticas pela autoridade pública.

The article explores the impact of agribusiness on the politics of legislative elections in Brazil. The central argument is that social contexts dominated by agribusiness tend to amplify the number of right‐wing micro‐parties, due firstly to the economic interests prevalent in such regions and secondly given the ‘catch all’ nature of Brazil's traditional right and centre‐right political parties. By showing how agribusiness favours the proliferation of small parties, we may also reveal one of the main reasons behind the ‘hyperfragmentation’ of Brazil's party system.

Education is a strong---if not the strongest---predictor of political participation. As non-college voters align with the Republican Party, it is necessary to revisit the partisan effect of turnout. We predict that, since 2016, the Democratic Party benefits from lower turnout. Using validated voter turnout from the Cooperative Election Study (CES), we simulate election results across turnout rates for the 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections. Our findings show that increases in turnout benefit the Democratic Party in 2008 and 2012. However, this pattern has drastically changed. In 2016 and 2020, the Democratic Party is advantaged by lower turnout. During this period, the profile of marginal voters has also changed: less educated voters most on the fence about participating in presidential elections are increasingly Republican. These results indicate that continued party realignment along the lines of education could lead to a persistent reversal in the expected partisan effect of turnout.