U.S. economic uncertainty, EU business cycles, and the global financial crisis

Choudhry, Taufiq; Hassan, Syed S.; Shabi, Sarosh

doi:10.1002/ijfe.1726

Cited by 19 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…There is a general consensus in the literature today that EPU has adverse effects on several economic factors. However, recent studies have provided evidence that the EPU index's effects on several factors and policies are asymmetric (Bahmani-Oskooee & Maki-Nayeri, 2019;Istiak & Alam, 2019;Choudhry et al, 2020). Existing research does not empirically explore the impact of EPU on GEE and GTFP.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic policy uncertainty and green economy efficiency: power or resistance?—Empirical evidence from Chinese major urban agglomerations

Wang

Shen

2021

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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Policy uncertainties have always played a critical role in shaping economic outcomes, as evidenced by the recent sluggish economic growth in many countries. Green economic efficiency (GEE) is a comprehensive index to measure economic, social, and environmental development. This paper uses the slack-based measurement (SBM) directional distance function and Luenberger productivity indicator to measure the static GEE and dynamic green total factor productivity (GTFP) of China's urban agglomerations from 2003 to 2020 under constraints of resources and environment. In order to clarify the driving mechanisms of GEE and GTFP, this paper adds the factor of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). The results show that there is a positive correlation between EPU with GEE and GTFP. The possible reason is that the market mechanism plays a decisive role in improved GEE and GTFP. Therefore, policymakers should give better play to the government's macro-control role, and play the decisive role of the market mechanism in the environmental governance system to improve GEE and GTFP in a targeted manner.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic policy uncertainty and green economy efficiency: power or resistance?—Empirical evidence from Chinese major urban agglomerations

Wang

Shen

2021

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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“…Carrière‐Swallow and Céspedes (2013) observe that this impact is much higher in emerging markets. Simultaneously, the risks of uncertainty can spill over among various countries or regions (Choudhry, Hassan, & Shabi, 2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty

2020

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The events that occurred after the worldwide diffusion of COVID‐19 provide a real‐life example of how uncertainty can severely affect the global economy. This paper reviews literature on the negative impacts of the economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) as developed by Baker et al., The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, 131, 1593–1636 on individuals, businesses, governments, and economies at the local and international levels. This reveals that a high EPU is associated with adverse effects on households, corporations, and governments, which tend to delay many financial decisions under high uncertainty, which leads to lower consumption, fewer issuances of debt, fewer investments, and higher unemployment. The effects of political and regulatory uncertainty also extend to the commodity markets, such as the adverse effects on both oil and gasoline markets, and can potentially create adverse impacts on the crypto‐currency market and its potential growth. We demonstrate that governmental uncertainty also affects financial, housing, and equity markets; debt issuances; and the entire economy. This underscores the importance of considering EPU as a risk factor. The association with several components of the global economy reflects not only the EPU index's critical influence, but also the importance of risk management. Our results lead us to consider the gravity of economic policy uncertainty and call for innovation across different sectors to mitigate its adverse effects.

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“…In particular, after the global 2007-2009 financial crisis, small countries began to respond less to fluctuations in interest rates in the Global Capital Market (Hall & McDermott, 2020). On the other hand, there is ample evidence that developments in the US economy have a direct impact on the EU's business cycles (Choudhry et al, 2020). National business cycles are much more dependent on the impact of specific local characteristics and behaviors than on global processes, which are actually few (Berger & Wortmann, 2020).…”

Section: Global Political Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

Global economic crisis of 2020 and a new paradigm of countercyclical management

Poruchnyk

Kolot²,

Mielcarek

et al. 2021

Problems and Perspectives in Management

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The new quality of globalization, which has emerged in the last decade and encompasses drastic changes in the economic, political and technological spheres, gives rise to a number of phenomena that violate the traditional logic of historical progress. One of them is the metamorphosis of the world economic cyclicity that emerged during the global 2020 economic crisis and led to a radical change in its nature, driving forces and regulatory mechanisms. The paper reveals the prerequisites for the crisis caused by traditional and emerging factors and proves its pandemic nature, which manifests itself, on one hand, in the synchronization of national business cycles, and on the other – in the integrative mutual influence of its political, institutional and environmental components. It has been proven that a particularly destructive role in the global regulatory mechanism was played by the “overlap” in space and time of the economic crisis and the health crisis provoked by the coronavirus pandemic. This requires an urgent systematic reform of global countercyclical management institutions based on a gestalt paradigm, which is qualitatively different in principles, goals and tools from the existing mechanisms for managing national economies and multinational enterprises. Scenario forecasts of the post-pandemic future of the world economy through overcoming the growing disintegration and deglobalization trends are outlined.

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U.S. economic uncertainty, EU business cycles, and the global financial crisis

Cited by 19 publications

References 60 publications

Economic policy uncertainty and green economy efficiency: power or resistance?—Empirical evidence from Chinese major urban agglomerations

Economic policy uncertainty and green economy efficiency: power or resistance?—Empirical evidence from Chinese major urban agglomerations

The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty

Global economic crisis of 2020 and a new paradigm of countercyclical management

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