2021
DOI: 10.1007/s11009-021-09886-2
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Unbiased Simulation of Rare Events in Continuous Time

Abstract: For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and $$\varepsilon$$ ε -strong simulation of diffusions, which can be used to almost surely constrain sample paths to a given tolerance, suggests one way to do this. We specify how such algorithms can be combined with the classical multilevel splitting method for r… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications
(2 citation statements)
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“…However, binary classification tasks can be used in time series data to discriminate between events with the goal to detect anomalies in the data. A method that combines strong simulation and multilevel splitting to estimate rare event probabilities in Markov processes was proposed in [26] with strong simulation ideas to avoid bias but there is a need for improvement in the scalability of the method. The utilization of the XGBoost and AdaBoost models has been employed in [57] for training the predictive models.…”
Section: Classificationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, binary classification tasks can be used in time series data to discriminate between events with the goal to detect anomalies in the data. A method that combines strong simulation and multilevel splitting to estimate rare event probabilities in Markov processes was proposed in [26] with strong simulation ideas to avoid bias but there is a need for improvement in the scalability of the method. The utilization of the XGBoost and AdaBoost models has been employed in [57] for training the predictive models.…”
Section: Classificationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, binary classification tasks can be used in time series data to discriminate between events with the goal to detect anomalies in the data. A method that combines strong simulation and multilevel splitting to estimate rare event probabilities in Markov processes was proposed in [88] with strong simulation ideas to avoid bias but there is a need for improvement in the scalability of the method. The utilization of the XGBoost and AdaBoost models has been employed in [85] for training the predictive models.…”
Section: Classificationmentioning
confidence: 99%