Uncertainties in Arctic sea ice thickness and volume: new estimates and implications for trends

Zygmuntowska, Marta; Rampal, Pierre; Ivanova, N. P.; Smedsrud, Lars H.

doi:10.5194/tc-8-705-2014

Cited by 134 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…However in this region PIOMAS agrees better with in situ data (Schweiger et al, 2011). Zygmuntowska et al (2014) suggest that this discrepancy is due to the choice of sea ice density in ICESat, and they support this explanation by finding lower discrepancies between PIOMAS and CryoSat-2 (Laxon et al, 2013) which utilises an alternative sea ice density value. Stroeve et al (2014), in a comprehensive study of SIT across CMIP5 and observations, find that the spatial correlations in thickness between CMIP5 models and PIOMAS are generally higher than those between CMIP5 models and ICESat.…”

Section: Piomassupporting

confidence: 51%

“…Lindsay et al (2014) force PI-OMAS with four different atmospheric reanalysis products producing differing results. Schweiger et al (2011) found biases in PIOMAS of 0.26 m in autumn and 0.1 m in spring when compared with ICESat (Zwally et al, 2002) although the spring bias is within the range of uncertainties found by Zygmuntowska et al (2014). Larger differences are found in the areas of thickest ice, north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, with ICESat retrievals around 0.7 m larger than PIOMAS.…”

Section: Piomasmentioning

confidence: 57%

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Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations

2015

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Abstract. Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from the mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.

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Section: Piomassupporting

confidence: 51%

Section: Piomasmentioning

confidence: 57%

Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations

2015

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“…Taking into account algorithm uncertainties due to assumptions of ice density and snow conditions, the hypothesized decline in sea ice volume in the Arctic between the ICESat and CryoSat-2 operational periods may have been less dramatic (Zygmuntowska et al, 2014) than reported in Laxon et al (2013).…”

Section: Sea Ice Thickness and Volumementioning

confidence: 95%

“…Recent re-interpretation of ICESat data has enabled trends in sea ice volume of −1445 ± 531 km 3 per year in October/November and −875 ± 257 km 3 per year in February/March to be obtained (Zygmuntowska et al, 2014). Taking into account algorithm uncertainties due to assumptions of ice density and snow conditions, the hypothesized decline in sea ice volume in the Arctic between the ICESat and CryoSat-2 operational periods may have been less dramatic (Zygmuntowska et al, 2014) than reported in Laxon et al (2013).…”

Section: Sea Ice Thickness and Volumementioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014

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Abstract. Sea ice is the central component and most sensitive indicator of the Arctic climate system. Both the depletion and areal decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, observed since the 1970s, have accelerated since the millennium. While the relationship of global warming to sea ice reduction is evident and underpinned statistically, it is the connecting mechanisms that are explored in detail in this review.Sea ice erodes both from the top and the bottom. Atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice processes interact in nonlinear ways on various scales. Feedback mechanisms lead to an Arctic amplification of the global warming system: the amplification is both supported by the ice depletion and, at the same time, accelerates ice reduction. Knowledge of the mechanisms of sea ice decline grew during the 1990s and This article reviews recent progress in understanding the sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice perspectives. There is strong evidence that decisive atmospheric changes are the major driver of sea ice change. Feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo, and ice thickness allow for additional local atmospheric and oceanic influences and self-supporting feedbacks. Large-scale ocean influences on Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Northward heat fluxes in the ocean are clearly impacting the ice margins, especially in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. There is little indication of a direct and decisive influence of the warming ocean on the overall sea ice cover, due to an isolating layer of cold and fresh water underneath the sea ice.

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Arctic sea ice in transformation: A review of recent observed changes and impacts on biology and human activity

et al. 2014

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Sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing components of the global climate system. Over the past few decades, summer areal extent has declined over 30%, and all months show statistically significant declining trends. New satellite missions and techniques have greatly expanded information on sea ice thickness, but many uncertainties remain in the satellite data and long-term records are sparse. However, thickness observations and other satellite-derived data indicate a 40% decline in thickness, due in large part to the loss of thicker, older ice cover. The changes in sea ice are happening faster than models have projected. With continued increasing temperatures, summer ice-free conditions are likely sometime in the coming decades, though there are substantial uncertainties in the exact timing and high interannual variability will remain as sea ice decreases. The changes in Arctic sea ice are already having an impact on flora and fauna in the Arctic. Some species will face increasing challenges in the future, while new habitat will open up for other species. The changes are also affecting people living and working in the Arctic. Native communities are facing challenges to their traditional ways of life, while new opportunities open for shipping, fishing, and natural resource extraction. Significant progress has been made in recent years in understanding of Arctic sea ice and its role in climate, the ecosystem, and human activities. However, significant challenges remain in furthering the knowledge of the processes, impacts, and future evolution of the system.

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Uncertainties in Arctic sea ice thickness and volume: new estimates and implications for trends

Cited by 134 publications

References 58 publications

Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations

Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations

Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

Arctic sea ice in transformation: A review of recent observed changes and impacts on biology and human activity

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