Uncertainties in future energy demand in UK residential heating

Abstract

Quantified scenarios show high uncertainty for UK residential space heating to 2050. There is a high risk of gas lock in without policy intervention. Some electrification of heating is very likely to be needed to meet climate policy goals. High electrification raises challenges including peak winter electricity demand. More diverse strategies including energy efficiency and biofuels have lower risks. a b s t r a c tFossil fuels are the main source of space heating in the UK, and therefore climate mitigation implies a systemic change in space heating systems. The challenge is difficult because of an inefficient building stock and high penetration of natural gas. We present new quantified scenarios for residential energy use in the UK to 2050. With minimal policy intervention the UK will remain locked into a gas based heating system, which would conflict with the policy goal of decarbonisation. However, there is a range of scenarios in which this is avoided. A system heavily reliant on heat pumps powered by low carbon electricity is UK policy makers' currently preferred alternative. We conclude that some shift in this direction is likely to be required, but complete reliance on this solution raises a number of problems. Greater use of energy efficiency and biomass can also play a significant role. These options have different risks, but a more diversified strategy would be more prudent. We conclude that the future of UK residential space heating is very uncertain, but meeting low carbon heating goals is better conceptualised as reducing reliance on gas rather than necessarily mass electrification. Our analysis has implications for any country with high use of fossil fuels in space heating and ambitious decarbonisation goals.

Detailed simulation of electrical demands due to nationwide adoption of heat pumps, taking account of renewable generation and mitigation

“…This was recognised in the UK Energy Research Centre's recent reports in which the potential role of thermal storage was explored [5] and the cost of an estimated 40GW increase in peak demand was presented as a barrier to the widespread adoption of heat pumps [6].…”

Energy systems thinking and the decarbonization of heat in the UK

“…In the short term, balancing the system is not so critical as with electricity -there is more 'give' via short-term and longer-term storage and greater scope for pressure variation within pipes (linepack). All this makes gas suitable for heating loads with their high peak demandsestimated at around 150 GW or more in the UK, or at least two and one half times the electricity peak, and possibly much higher (DECC 2013, Eyre andBaruah 2015). As with transport, electricity can probably not simply substitute for gas by providing exactly the same service in the same way, which would require enormous and expensive investment in electricity generation capacity.…”

Multi-temporal assessment of power system flexibility requirement

“…Papers on the subject adopt a policy approach, examples of which are analyses of long-term climate change impacts on European load curves [21,22], or the implications of an ongoing increase of temperature sensitivity of summer electricity demand on asset maintenance scheduling [23]. Several papers issue a warning to countries considering heat electrification, in a move towards heat decarbonisation [24,25,26]. The security of supply risk and the approximate associated cost resulting from this added load variability is quantified.…”