Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis

Nilsson, S.; Shvidenko, А.; Jonas, M.; McCallum, Ian; Thomson, Allison M.; Balzter, Heiko

doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-5930-8_2

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…However, none-if individually applied-is able to provide comprehensive and reliable assessment of uncertainties because estimation of structural uncertainties cannot be based only on the consideration of an "individual" case. This leads to the conclusion that only an integration of different methodologies is capable of generating a promising solution (e.g., Nilsson et al 2007). To provide integration of different FCA methods, one of them should be selected as the basis of the accounting system.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…However, a number of studies illustrate a high level of uncertainty of biosphere carbon accounting from the regional to the global scale (Chen et al 2000;Houghton 2003;Nilsson et al 2007). Furthermore, two interconnected questions become crucially important: (1) what is the acceptable level of uncertainty at which the introduction of FCA results into the international accounting regime would be allowed?…”

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confidence: 99%

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Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers?

et al. 2010

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In accordance with the concept that only full accounting of major greenhouse gases corresponds to the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, this paper considers uncertainties of regional (national) terrestrial biota Full Carbon Accounting (FCA), both those already achieved and those expected. We analyze uncertainties of major components of the FCA of forest ecosystems of a large boreal region in Siberia (∼300 × 10 6 ha). Some estimates for forests of other regions and Russia as a whole are used for comparison. The systems integration of available information sources and different types of models within the landscape-ecosystem approach are shown to have enabled an estimation of the major carbon fluxes (Net Primary Production, NPP, and heterotrophic respiration, HR) for the region for a single year at the level of 7-12% (confidential interval, CI, 0.9), Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) of 35-40%, and Net Biome Production (NBP) of 60-80%. The most uncertain aspect is the assessment of change in the soil carbon pool, which limits practical application of a pool-based approach. Regionalization of global process-based models, introduction of climatic data in empirical models, use of an appropriate time period for accounting and reporting, harmonization and multiple constraints of estimates obtained by different independent methods decrease the above uncertainties of NEP and NBP by about half. The results of this study support the idea that FCA of forest ecosystems is relevant in the post-Kyoto international negotiation process.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 96%

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confidence: 99%

Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers?

et al. 2010

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“…According to Nilsson, Shvidenko, and Jonas (2007) uncertainty can be defined as "an imperfection in knowledge of the true value of a particular parameter or its real variability in an individual or a group". It can be represented by a range of values calculated by various models or by qualitative measures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates

Bartoszczuk

Horabik

2007

Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus

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We simulate the market for emission permits by considering uncertainty in emission inventory reports. The approach taken in this analysis is to enhance the emissions reported in each region by a certain part of their uncertainty when compliance with the Kyoto targets is being proved. While this formulation is not new in the literature, we define the uncertainty component in a way that enables comparison with the approach of effective permits presented in Nahorski, Horabik, and Jonas (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories, (this issue). We show and explain that the transformation to effective permits bears additional costs apart from those resulting from shifting the Kyoto targets.

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“…A more comprehensive inclusion of sources might significantly decrease relative uncertainty, when overall information (e.g., on biomass growth within a certain biome) is available with higher accuracy. This topic has been discussed in more detail by Nilsson et al (2007).…”

Section: Covariance and The Definition Of Adequate System Boundariesmentioning

confidence: 98%

National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability

Winiwarter

2007

Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus

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We investigated the Austrian national greenhouse gas emission inventory to review the reliability and usability of such inventories. The overall uncertainty of the inventory (95% confidence interval) is just over 10% of total emissions, with nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from soils clearly providing the largest impact. Trend uncertainty -the difference between 2 years -is only about five percentage points, as important sources like soil N 2 O are not expected to show different behavior between the years and thus exhibit a high covariance. The result is very typical for industrialized countries -subjective decisions by individuals during uncertainty assessment are responsible for most of the discrepancies among countries. Thus, uncertainty assessment cannot help to evaluate whether emission targets have been met. Instead, a more rigid emission accounting system that allows little individual flexibility is proposed to provide harmonized evaluation uninfluenced by the respective targets. Such an accounting system may increase uncertainty in terms of greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere. More importantly, however, it will decrease uncertainty in intercountry comparisons and thus allow for fair burden sharing. Setting of postKyoto emission targets will require the independent evaluation of achievements. This can partly be achieved by the validation of emission inventories and thorough uncertainty assessment.

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Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis

Cited by 8 publications

References 34 publications

Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers?

Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers?

Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates

National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability

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