Uncertainty analysis of clock prediction based on a random pursuit strategy

Wang, Yuzhuo; Zhang, Aimin; Gao, Yuan; Xu, Qing; Lin, Yige

doi:10.1088/1361-6501/aac6a7

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…(4) Each f j t, A j 's ability to predict can be characterized in terms of particular interests. Our previous work [30] described the calculation method of the uncertainty of predicted value dj (t) in detail. It is defined as a generalization capability of f j t, A j in this work, therefore the weight of that in the ensemble can be expressed as…”

Section: A Prpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, three parameters-phase, frequency, and frequency drift-can be used to describe the readings of Cs-clocks and H-masers [29], [30] about the modified Julian date (MJD). The prediction of the clock phase is the main emphasis of this example.…”

Section: B One Embodiment Of the Prpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As in the previous research, the random pursuit strategy (RPS) was used to reduce the influence of anomalous clock behaviors on its predictability [29], [30]. It was derived from Bagging [31], [32], which is a classical method of combinatorial optimization theory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Pseudo Random Pursuit Strategy for Atomic Clocks

Chen

Wang

et al. 2023

IEEE Access

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The atomic clock prediction algorithm is a critical part of the atomic time scale system to ensure its stability and accuracy. Random pursuit strategy (RPS) has been verified on the prediction capability of hydrogen maser and cesium clock in our previous works. This method is applied to deal with data impacted by different noise types including hetero-variance white noises and jumps. Nevertheless, it is difficult to apply RPS to real-time clock prediction, owing to its computational complexity. To alleviate it, we further improved our original algorithm by simplifying the random grouping using a pseudo-random strategy. In our work, theoretical analysis and necessary simulations of the pseudo-random pursuit strategy (PRPS) are presented, and the experimental results show PRPS's remarkable advantage in terms of operational efficiency. Compared to the original algorithm, it shows comparable accuracy and stability for prediction. PRPS takes only 1/p fitting time consumption as long as RPS starts from the second prediction. PRPS is faster, more efficient, and easier to employ when utilizing a clock predictor as the output of a system than RPS.INDEX TERMS Atomic clock, pseudo random, real-time prediction, anomalous behaviors, uncertainty, time complexity.

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Section: A Prpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B One Embodiment Of the Prpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Pseudo Random Pursuit Strategy for Atomic Clocks

Chen

Wang

et al. 2023

IEEE Access

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“…Given that the residuals are time-dependent random variables, an adaptive weight strategy known as the minimum variance weighting (MVW) approach is used. [5,16] This method involves finding the weight w that minimizes the variance of z(t) in Eq. ( 2).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A redundant subspace weighting procedure for clock ensemble

Xu 徐,

Chen 陈,

Liu 刘

et al. 2024

Chinese Phys. B

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A redundant-subspace-weighting (RSW) based approach is proposed to enhance the frequency stability of the time scale of a clock ensemble. In this approach, multiple overlapping subspaces are constructed in the clock ensemble, and the weight attributed to each clock in this ensemble is defined using the spatial covariance matrix. Superimposition averaging of different subspace covariances somewhat reduces the correlations between clocks located in the same laboratory. After optimizing the parameters of this weighting procedure, the frequency stabilities of virtual clock ensembles are significantly improved in most cases.

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“…So far, much effort has been invested in improving the accuracy of clock offset prediction, and such efforts can roughly be divided into two categories: the single model of clock offset prediction and the hybrid model of clock offset prediction. In the first category, for example, a quadratic polynomial (QP) model is commonly used, though it does not take into account the influence of periodic terms [5,6]. The gray model (GM) can obtain good prediction results from a small amount of data, but it is not stable [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An enhanced prediction model for BDS ultra-rapid clock offset that combines singular spectrum analysis, robust estimation and gray model

Xue

Nie

et al. 2021

Meas. Sci. Technol.

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Predicting the accuracy of clock offsets is critical for real-time precise point positioning. By considering the influence of gross error, periodic error, and uncertainty error on model fitting, we propose an enhanced prediction model for the BeiDou navigation satellite system ultra-rapid clock offset that combines robust estimation, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the gray model. First, SSA is used to decompose the clock offset sequence into two parts: a certain part and an uncertain part. Second, the robust quadratic polynomial (RQP) model with additional period terms is adopted to model the certain part. Third, the fitted residual from the second step and the uncertain part from the first step are combined and modeled by the robust gray model (RGM). Finally, the parts predicted by the RQP model with additional period terms and the RGM are added together with the initial corrected deviation to get the final prediction value. The proposed enhanced model is verified using ultra-rapid clock bias products from the International Global Navigation Satellite System Monitoring and Assessment Service (iGMAS) by taking the final clock bias products from iGMAS as a reference. The results show that the proposed model can improve prediction accuracy by 6.7%, 19.5%, 31.7%, and 42.2% over the iGMAS ultra-rapid prediction products at 3, 6, 12, and 24 h prediction spans, respectively, when using clock bias products of 2-day arcs for modeling.

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Uncertainty analysis of clock prediction based on a random pursuit strategy

Cited by 4 publications

References 10 publications

A Pseudo Random Pursuit Strategy for Atomic Clocks

A Pseudo Random Pursuit Strategy for Atomic Clocks

A redundant subspace weighting procedure for clock ensemble

An enhanced prediction model for BDS ultra-rapid clock offset that combines singular spectrum analysis, robust estimation and gray model

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