Uncertainty analysis of wind speed of wind turbine

Abstract

The uncertainty of wind speed has a great impact on the reliability of wind turbines. However, previous studies usually used average wind speed or rated wind speed as inputs, ignoring the impact of time and space distribution on wind speed. Based on the hourly ground observation data of meteorological stations, four observation stations are taken as the research object of the uncertainty of wind speed spatial distribution. The four observation stations are divided into single day and one week, and seven data analysis indicators and normal distribution models are used day and night to analyze the uncertainty of wind speed time distribution. The results show that both spatial distribution and temporal distribution are important factors that cause the uncertainty of wind speed. Due to different geographical locations of four stations, their wind speed time domain diagrams are different, and the maximum wind speed, fluctuation frequency and fluctuation amplitude of wind speed at each observation station are different; The wind speed distribution of a single day is quite different from that of a week.The data of a single day and a week are analyzed by day and night, which is quite different from the overall data analysis. The necessity of wind speed uncertainty research of wind turbine considering the temporal and spatial distribution is verified, and it is concluded that normal distribution is not suitable for fitting the distribution model of four stations under study, which lays a foundation for determining the wind speed distribution model, analyzing the power characteristics of wind turbine, evaluating the generation capacity of wind turbine, and analyzing the reliability of wind turbine.

State Reliability of Wind Turbines Based on XGBoost–LSTM and Their Application in Northeast China

“…According to the existing research [13][14][15][16], the randomness and uncertainty of wind volume have a large impact on the volatility of wind power generation, and wind speed transmission is different at different heights such as 20 m, 50 m, 80 m, and 100 m. Researchers have proposed algorithms that consider the effect of wind speed on the operating states of wind turbines to solve the problem of the accuracy of wind speed prediction. Some researchers [17] have argued that the uncertainty of wind speed has a great impact on the reliability of wind turbines and have verified the inapplicability of normal distribution and the need for spatial and temporal distribution studies with arithmetic examples, while previous studies have ignored the effects of temporal and spatial distributions on wind speed. Other researchers [18] have proposed wind speed stochasticity to account for the theoretical results of Weibull and Bimbaum-Saunders' wind speed distributions and found them to be suitable for real-time data collected at two different locations.…”