Uncertainty Analysis on Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in Karst Tunnels

Hao, Yiqing; Rong, Xiaoli; Ma, Linjian; Fan, Pengxian; Lü, Hao

doi:10.1155/2016/2947628

Cited by 12 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Monte Carlo is a numerical simulation method that is widely used in structural reliability engineering [47,48]. Based on statistical sampling theory, Monte Carlo method solves structural reliability by statistical sampling or random simulation of random variables.…”

Section: Monte Carlo Methods Based On Nataf Inverse Transformationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Method of Solving Structural Reliability with Multiparameter Correlation Problem

2017

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Correlation among variables must be considered to accurately reflect the level of structure reliability. This problem has referential value to engineering practice and has attracted attention from relevant scholars and industries. In this paper, Copula function was used to build the joint probability density function among all variables. The key is to describe the correlation among variables, solve the correlation parameter of Copula function, and select the type of correlation structure among variables. The correlation parameter of Copula function was solved using Pearson linear correlation coefficient and maximum likelihood estimation. Based on the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC), the optimal Copula function was selected, and the correlation structure among variables was determined. Monte Carlo method, which is based on Nataf inverse transformation, was introduced and used to evaluate the reliability of the correlated variable. Finally, this paper proposed the reliability calculation method based on dual neural network and direct integration by establishing the dual neural network of original and integrand functions. Compared with the Monte Carlo method, the proposed method can be utilized to efficiently and precisely calculate the structure reliability of multiple correlated random variables.

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Section: Monte Carlo Methods Based On Nataf Inverse Transformationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Method of Solving Structural Reliability with Multiparameter Correlation Problem

2017

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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“…In order to reflect this rule, the positive efficacy coefficient value and negative efficacy coefficient value of single index are squared. Then, the positive and negative multi-index efficacy coefficient value can be obtained by coupling of the single-index efficacy coefficient value and the weight in Equations (5) and (6).…”

Section: Multi-index Efficacy Coefficient Valuementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Now, water inrush hazard has become one of the major geological calamity of constraining the development of tunnel construction in the Karst area [1][2][3]. According to incomplete statistics, water and mud inrush and its induced geological disasters, which has caused serious harm to life, property, and the environment, have accounted for more than 50% of major safety accidents in the tunnels [3][4][5]. Therefore, study on early warning for water inrush is the most effective ways to avoid and prevent the geological disaster.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Early Warning Method for Water Inrush in Tunnel Based on Fine Risk Evaluation and Hierarchical Advance Forecast

Wang

et al. 2019

Geosciences

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Water inrush is one of the most frequent and harmful geological disasters in tunnel construction. In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush, an early warning method based on fine risk evaluation and hierarchical advanced forecast is proposed. Water inrush is a complex dynamic coupling factors system, the relationship between influencing factors and water inrush is strongly nonlinear. Therefore, the efficacy coefficient model, which has the advantages of standardization, conciseness, and freedom from subjective factors, is improved nonlinearly. The fine risk evaluation theory and method based on the improved efficacy coefficient model consisted of two parts: one is static evaluation used in design stage, and the other is dynamic evaluation applied in the construction stage. The index weights are determined scientifically and reasonably by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the entropy method. According to the fine risk evaluation results, combined with the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods, a multistep hierarchical detection method of disaster resources for water inrush is proposed to identify the occurrence characteristics and failure level of disaster sources. The theory has been successfully applied to the #3 inclined well of Yuelongmen Tunnel in Cheng-Lan Railway. The evaluation results had good agreement with the actual excavation data, which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility. The method could improve the prediction accuracy of water inrush and explore geometric characteristics and filling of disaster-causing structures. It is of great significance for avoiding water inrush and guiding the rapid and safe tunnel construction.

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“…According to the statistical analysis of historical data, the fitting formula between the occurrence probability of incident A and the influencing factors is: 22 , , , , (0,1) x x x x x  ) in the above formula, the scope of risk control measures will be very wide. It will be a challenging issue to select a reasonable control measure quickly.…”

Section: Risk Control Considering Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Entropy-Based Risk Control of Geological Disasters in Mountain Tunnels Under Uncertain Environments

Xia¹,

Xiong²,

Hao³

et al. 2018

Preprint

Self Cite

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Uncertainty is the main source of risk of geological hazards in tunnel engineering. Uncertainty information not only affects the accuracy of evaluation results, but also affects the reliability of decision-making schemes. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and control the impact of uncertainty on risk. In this study, the problems in existing entropy-hazard model such as inefficient decision-making and failure of decision-making are analysed, and an improved uncertainty evaluation and control process are proposed. Then the tolerance cost, the key factor in the decision-making model, is also discussed. It is considered that the amount of change in risk value (R 1 ) can better reflect the psychological behaviour of decision-makers. Thirdly, common attribute decision models, such as the expected utility-entropy model, are analysed, and then the viewpoint of different types of decision-making issues that require different decision methods is proposed. The well-known Allais paradox is explained by the proposed methods. Finally, the engineering application results show that the uncertainty control idea proposed here is accurate and effective. This research indicates a direction for further research into uncertainty, and risk control, issues affecting underground engineering works.

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Uncertainty Analysis on Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in Karst Tunnels

Cited by 12 publications

References 19 publications

The Method of Solving Structural Reliability with Multiparameter Correlation Problem

The Method of Solving Structural Reliability with Multiparameter Correlation Problem

Study on Early Warning Method for Water Inrush in Tunnel Based on Fine Risk Evaluation and Hierarchical Advance Forecast

Entropy-Based Risk Control of Geological Disasters in Mountain Tunnels Under Uncertain Environments

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