Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada
“…Goodwin et al, (30,31) Andres and Goodwin (32) TILA-99 Finland 1999 Vieno and Nordman (33) (38) Helton and Sallaberry, (39,40) Rechard et al, (41) Helton et al, (42,44,46,50,51,53) Hansen et al, (43,45,47,52) Sallaberry et al (48,49)…”
Section: Canada 1998mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…(26,40) The distributions of uncertain parameters can be derived from historical information or expert judgment, (58) such as in DeWispelare et al (89) and Neri et al (90) Once obtained, these distributions can be processed through uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis. (45,47,49,52,53) Uncertainty analysis evaluates how uncertain the model results are due to uncertainties in the model parameters. Sensitivity analysis identifies which parameters most influence the model results, so that efforts to reduce the remaining uncertainty can be focused on these parameters.…”
A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties.
“…Goodwin et al, (30,31) Andres and Goodwin (32) TILA-99 Finland 1999 Vieno and Nordman (33) (38) Helton and Sallaberry, (39,40) Rechard et al, (41) Helton et al, (42,44,46,50,51,53) Hansen et al, (43,45,47,52) Sallaberry et al (48,49)…”
Section: Canada 1998mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…(26,40) The distributions of uncertain parameters can be derived from historical information or expert judgment, (58) such as in DeWispelare et al (89) and Neri et al (90) Once obtained, these distributions can be processed through uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis. (45,47,49,52,53) Uncertainty analysis evaluates how uncertain the model results are due to uncertainties in the model parameters. Sensitivity analysis identifies which parameters most influence the model results, so that efforts to reduce the remaining uncertainty can be focused on these parameters.…”
A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties.
“…Further, more detailed results underlying the assessment of compliance with the Individual Protection Standard after Permanent Closure are presented in Refs. [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13], and a summary of the entire 2008 YM PA is available in Ref. [14].…”
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