Uncertainty and sensitivity of the sexual behavior changes to the current human papillomavirus vaccination campaign in Spain

Acedo, L.; Cortés, J.-C.; Díez‐Domingo, Javier; Sánchez-Alonso, Víctor; Tuells, José; Micó, Rafael Jacinto Villanueva

doi:10.1002/mma.7117

Cited by 11 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Mathematical models, statistical analyses and computational techniques are very useful tools to study different processes, including testing hypotheses and understanding how factors affect the processes. For infectious disease processes, mathematical models can be used to perform in silico simulations of different potential scenarios, vaccination programs, and test different strategies to slow down epidemics [39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. The outcomes of the complex infectious disease processes under different scenarios are generally impossible to predict without mathematical models and computational techniques.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

2021

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The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020. Currently, there are only a few approved vaccines, each with different efficacies and mechanisms of action. Moreover, vaccination programs in different regions may vary due to differences in implementation, for instance, simply the availability of the vaccine. In this article, we study the impact of the pace of vaccination and the intrinsic efficacy of the vaccine on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Then we study different potential scenarios regarding the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. We construct a compartmental mathematical model and use computational methodologies to study these different scenarios. Thus, we are able to identify some key factors to reach the aims of the vaccination programs. We use some metrics related to the outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of the efficacy of the vaccine and the pace of the vaccine inoculation. We found that both factors have a high impact on the outcomes. However, the rate of vaccine administration has a higher impact in reducing the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. This result shows that health institutions need to focus on increasing the vaccine inoculation pace and create awareness in the population about the importance of COVID-19 vaccines.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

2021

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“…To avoid the inconveniences of having data on sexual behavior specific from Spain of 2003, we have published a model sensitivity analysis, we found that large changes in the sexual behavior, in some extent, only have minor effects on the decline of the HPV infections in women and men in the current vaccination campaign in Spain (vaccination of young girls with a coverage of 70%) [40].…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, it will be influenced by possible biases in the data about sexual behavior [26] and the source data to calibrate it [38]. To check that the possible bias is low, we have performed a sensitivity analysis published in [40].…”

Section: Limitations Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of a Gender-Neutral HPV Vaccination Program in Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM)

Díez‐Domingo

Sánchez-Alonso

Micó

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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A major challenge in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine programs is the universal gender-neutral recommendation, as well as estimation of its long-term effect. The objective of this study is to predict the added benefit of male vaccination, especially in men who have sex with men (MSM), and to analyze the impact of the program on society. We propose a mathematical model of the HPV infection based on a network paradigm. Data from Spain allowed constructing the sexual network. HPV force of infection was taken from literature. Different scenarios using variable vaccine coverage in both males and females were studied. Strong herd immunity is shown in the heterosexual population, with an important decrease of HPV 6/11 infections both in men and in unvaccinated women with an only-women vaccination at 14 years of age. No impact of this program occurred in the infection incidence in MSM. This group would only benefit from a vaccination program that includes males. However, the impact at short term would be lower than in heterosexual men. The protection of MSM can only be achieved by direct vaccination of males. This may have important consequences for public health.

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“…The sensitivity analysis returned very similar results for the decline in oncogenic HPV infections, which indicates that the model is quite resilient with respect to large size modifications. This sensitivity analysis has been published in Acedo et al [32].…”

Section: Strengths and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Elimination of Cancers Related to Oncogenic Human Papillomavirus: an Approach using a Computational Network Model

Muñoz-Quiles¹,

Díez-Domingo²,

Acedo³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Cervical cancer is the fourth most common malignancy in women worldwide, although it is preventable with prophylactic HPV vaccination. HPV transmission-dynamic models can predict the potential for global elimination of cervical cancer. The random network model is a new approach that allows individuals to be followed, and to implement a given vaccination policy according to their clinical records. We developed an HPV transmission dynamics model on a lifetime sexual partners network based on individual contacts, also accounting for the sexual behavior of men who have sex with men (MSM). We analyzed the decline in the prevalence of HPV infection in a scenario of 75% and 90% coverage for both sexes. An important herd immunity effect for men and women was observed in the heterosexual network, even with 75% coverage. However, HPV in-fections are persistent in the MSM population, with sustained circulation of the virus among un-vaccinated individuals. Coverage around 75% of both sexes would be necessary to eradicate HPV-related conditions in women within five decades. Nevertheless, the variation in the decline in infection in the long term between vaccination coverage of 75% and 90% is relatively small, suggesting that reaching coverage of around 70-75% in the heterosexual network may be enough to confer high protection. Nevertheless, HPV eradication maybe achieved if men’s coverage is strictly controlled. This accurate representation of HPV transmission demonstrates the need to maintain high HPV vaccination coverage, especially in men, for whom the cost-effectiveness of vaccination is questioned.

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Uncertainty and sensitivity of the sexual behavior changes to the current human papillomavirus vaccination campaign in Spain

Cited by 11 publications

References 24 publications

Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Impact of a Gender-Neutral HPV Vaccination Program in Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM)

On the Elimination of Cancers Related to Oncogenic Human Papillomavirus: an Approach using a Computational Network Model

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