Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.

doi:10.1038/s43017-019-0004-7

Cited by 49 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 171 publications

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“…Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as one example of geoengineering to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface through cloud brightening, cirrus cloud thinning, or injection of sulphates into the stratosphere [ 27 ]. Modelling studies indicate that, in addition to changes in climate, SRM could cause ozone depletion (mainly in Polar Regions) and ozone enhancements (mainly in the tropics and mid-latitudes) [ 113 – 115 ]. While SRM could offset some of the rapidly warming climate conditions, this intervention could lead to a number of disruptions in natural and agricultural ecosystems that could compromise food production and essential ecosystem services [ 116 ].…”

Section: Interactive Effects Of Uv Radiation and Extreme Climate Even...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as one example of geoengineering to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface through cloud brightening, cirrus cloud thinning, or injection of sulphates into the stratosphere [27]. Modelling studies indicate that, in addition to changes in climate, SRM could cause ozone depletion (mainly in Polar Regions) and ozone enhancements (mainly in the tropics and mid-latitudes) [113][114][115].…”

Section: The Implementation Of Geoengineering Interventions Aimed At ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

Barnes

Robson

Neale

et al. 2022

Photochem Photobiol Sci

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The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on the environment and human health that arise from changes in the stratospheric ozone layer and concomitant variations in ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth’s surface. The current update is based on scientific advances that have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem and Photobiol Sci 20(1):1–67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects stratospheric ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation, and how stratospheric ozone depletion affects climate change. The resulting interlinking effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change are assessed in terms of air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, human health, and natural and synthetic materials. We further highlight potential impacts on the biosphere from extreme climate events that are occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence of climate change. These and other interactive effects are examined with respect to the benefits that the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments are providing to life on Earth by controlling the production of various substances that contribute to both stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.

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Section: Interactive Effects Of Uv Radiation and Extreme Climate Even...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Implementation Of Geoengineering Interventions Aimed At ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

Barnes

Robson

Neale

et al. 2022

Photochem Photobiol Sci

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“…Climate model simulations generally agree that injecting SO 2 has the potential to reduce global surface temperatures relative to the warming induced by greenhouse gases (GHGs); the imperfect compensation between the GHG and SO 2 forcing (Govindasamy et al, 2003; Jiang et al, 2019) would, however, result in differences in aspects of the surface climate such as the hydrological cycle (Niemeier et al, 2013; Simpson et al, 2019; Tilmes et al, 2013) compared to a non‐geoengineered climate with no GHG warming, but these differences would still be much lower than those resulting from continued GHG‐induced warming (Irvine & Keith, 2020). Large uncertainties are still present in many areas related to the possible interactions with different aspects of the climate (Kravitz & MacMartin, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reduced Poleward Transport Due to Stratospheric Heating Under Stratospheric Aerosols Geoengineering

Visioni

MacMartin

Kravitz

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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By injecting SO2 into the stratosphere at four latitudes (30°, 15°N/S), it might be possible not only to reduce global mean surface temperature but also to minimize changes in the equator‐to‐pole and inter‐hemispheric gradients of temperature, further reducing some of the impacts arising from climate change relative to equatorial injection. This can happen only if the aerosols are transported to higher latitudes by the stratospheric circulation, ensuring that a greater part of the solar radiation is reflected back to space at higher latitudes, compensating for the reduced sunlight. However, the stratospheric heating produced by these aerosols modifies the circulation and strengthens the stratospheric polar vortex which acts as a barrier to the transport of air toward the poles. We show how the heating results in a feedback where increasing injection rates lead to stronger high‐latitudinal transport barriers. This implies a potential limitation in the high‐latitude aerosol burden and subsequent cooling.

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“…Later, Kent et al (2014) provided a detailed analysis of idealized tracers and transport scenarios. Most recently, Gupta et al (2020) studied a variety of dynamical cores using mean age of air as a transport diagnostic, demonstrating that many issues with numerical diffusion are still relevant with modern techniques and computational resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Lagrangian transport on lower-stratospheric transport timescales in a climate model

et al. 2020

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Abstract. We investigate the impact of model trace gas transport schemes on the representation of transport processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Towards this end, the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) was coupled to the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and results from the two transport schemes (Lagrangian critical Lyapunov scheme and flux-form semi-Lagrangian, respectively) were compared. Advection in CLaMS was driven by the EMAC simulation winds, and thereby the only differences in transport between the two sets of results were caused by differences in the transport schemes. To analyze the timescales of large-scale transport, multiple tropical-surface-emitted tracer pulses were performed to calculate age of air spectra, while smaller-scale transport was analyzed via idealized, radioactively decaying tracers emitted in smaller regions (nine grid cells) within the stratosphere. The results show that stratospheric transport barriers are significantly stronger for Lagrangian EMAC-CLaMS transport due to reduced numerical diffusion. In particular, stronger tracer gradients emerge around the polar vortex, at the subtropical jets, and at the edge of the tropical pipe. Inside the polar vortex, the more diffusive EMAC flux-form semi-Lagrangian transport scheme results in a substantially higher amount of air with ages from 0 to 2 years (up to a factor of 5 higher). In the lowermost stratosphere, mean age of air is much smaller in EMAC, owing to stronger diffusive cross-tropopause transport. Conversely, EMAC-CLaMS shows a summertime lowermost stratosphere age inversion – a layer of older air residing below younger air (an “eave”). This pattern is caused by strong poleward transport above the subtropical jet and is entirely blurred by diffusive cross-tropopause transport in EMAC. Potential consequences from the choice of the transport scheme on chemistry–climate and geoengineering simulations are discussed.

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Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research

Cited by 49 publications

References 171 publications

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

Reduced Poleward Transport Due to Stratospheric Heating Under Stratospheric Aerosols Geoengineering

Impact of Lagrangian transport on lower-stratospheric transport timescales in a climate model

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