Uncertainty in Dam Failure Consequence Estimates

McCann, Martin W.; Paxson, Greg

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/20160711003

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The sources of uncertainty in dam-break modeling are numerous and can be attributed to input parameters, model simplifications, and lack of knowledge [38]. These uncertainties can be categorized into two types, namely aleatory and epistemic [39].…”

Section: Identification Of the Sources Of Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks

et al. 2020

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Uncertainties in instantaneous dam-break floods are difficult to assess with standard methods (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation) because of the lack of historical observations and high computational costs of the numerical models. In this study, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) was applied to a dam-break flood model reflecting the population of large concrete dams in Switzerland. The flood model was approximated with a metamodel and uncertainty in the inputs was propagated to the flow quantities downstream of the dam. The study demonstrates that the application of metamodeling for uncertainty quantification in dam-break studies allows for reduced computational costs compared to standard methods. Finally, Sobol’ sensitivity indices indicate that reservoir volume, length of the valley, and surface roughness contributed most to the variability of the outputs. The proposed methodology, when applied to similar studies in flood risk assessment, allows for more generalized risk quantification than conventional approaches.

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Section: Identification Of the Sources Of Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks

et al. 2020

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“…Their interface allows MATLAB to control HEC-RAS by considering unique sequences, i.e., hydrographs over long periods of time. Therefore, Monte Carlo simulations can be performed using HEC-RAS and MATLAB [19,20]. However, control algorithms that require a feedback loop cannot be implemented using their approach, as there exists no interface that enables it.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design of a MATLAB HEC-RAS Interface to Test Advanced Control Strategies on Water Systems

Deshays

Segovia

Duviella

2021

Water

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The software package HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System) is widely used by the water engineering community to analyze hydraulic systems and perform development planning. Furthermore, it integrates a control module that allows implementing basic controllers. For more complex approaches, developers from the automatic control and artificial intelligence (AI) communities usually design, implement, and test new algorithms using dedicated software such as MATLAB. However, models of hydraulic systems employed in MATLAB are often very simple. The main objective of the paper is to design a simulation architecture by coupling HEC-RAS with MATLAB, thus improving the accuracy of the dynamics of the hydraulic systems considered in the control simulations. The main feature of the MATLAB HEC-RAS interface design is that it allows one to execute customized code at regular time intervals during the simulation. In this way, closed-loop control and optimization algorithms can be implemented and tested. Moreover, the generic interface allows for any configuration of hydrographical systems. The proposed interface is presented in this paper, and the performance of the approach is demonstrated considering two case studies of different nature.

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“…Fig. 4-A represents a limit state dominated by time-independent epistemic uncertainty [57] in stochastic design variables, for example a 'dam'. Many dam failures occur at the first filling of the reservoir because of unforeseen soil conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-based target reliability indices for quay walls

et al. 2018

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Design codes and standards rely on generalised target reliability indices. It is unclear, however, whether these indices are applicable to the specific risk-profile of marine structures. In this study, target reliability indices for quay walls were derived from various risk acceptance criteria, such as economic optimisation, individual risk (IR), societal risk (SR), the life quality index (LQI) and the social and environmental repercussion index (SERI). Important stochastic design variables in quay wall design, such as retaining height, soil strength and material properties, are largely time-independent, whereas other design variables are time-dependent. The extent to which a reliability problem is time variant affects the present value of future failure costs and the associated reliability optimum. A method was therefore developed to determine the influence of time-independent variables on the development of failure probability over time. This method can also be used to evaluate target reliability indices of other civil and geotechnical structures. The target reliability indices obtained for quay walls depend on failure consequences and marginal costs of safety investments. The results were used to elaborate the reliability framework of ISO 2394, and associated reliability levels are proposed for various consequence classes. The insights acquired were used to evaluate the acceptable probability of failure for different types of quay walls.

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Uncertainty in Dam Failure Consequence Estimates

Cited by 5 publications

References 5 publications

Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks

Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks

Design of a MATLAB HEC-RAS Interface to Test Advanced Control Strategies on Water Systems

Risk-based target reliability indices for quay walls

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