Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Dong, Lu; Leung, L. Ruby; Song, Fengfei; Lu, Jian

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26797-5

Cited by 26 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Thus, the total uncertainty is de ned as standard deviations of CMIP6 ensemble. These de nitions are consistent with previous works that also used large ensemble to constrain the projected uncertainty 44,45 .…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Large size of simulations from different members based on the same model aims to ensure that different members are driven by the same external forcing but differ in their initial conditions. Thus, the spread among different members can represent the uncertainty due to internal variability 45 . The ensemble mean of all the members is the climate change responses to external forcing.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, this relationship between PDO/IPO and decadal precipitation change was also applied to the study of future regional precipitation changes over eastern China. For example, based on projected PDO/IPO trend, previous studies constrained future regional precipitation trend over the south Asia and California, Unite States effectively 44,45 . In addition, the trends of historical temperature and interhemispheric thermal contrast (ITC) were respectively used to constrain the increasing trend of future Asian precipitation 21,22 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on IPO-constrained precipitation

Ning

Qin

et al. 2022

Preprint

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A reliable projection of future risk of decadal megadrought event is crucial for adaption and mitigation over eastern China to future climate changes. However, large uncertainties are induced by emission scenarios, model structures, and internal variability in current model simulation. Using a 50-member ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), it is found that, under the same emission scenario, internal variability contributes a large part to the total uncertainties of decadal precipitation variability over eastern China, and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), could contribute about 30% to internal uncertainty during future period (2021–2080). Then, an emergent constraint based on IPO is applied to the model simulated precipitation. Finally, constrained precipitation changes show that northern China will have a high megadrought risk in the 2050s to 2060s, and Yangtze River Valley will have a high megadrought risk in the 2030s to 2040s. These will have great benefit to specific strategies of social infrastructure in the future.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on IPO-constrained precipitation

Ning

Qin

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Specifically, these distributions reveal, for example, that in spring the PDO can affect the probabilities of ENSO-related precipitation in San Diego, California. A negative Pacific Decadal Variability trend (as recently observed;1979-2019(Dong et al 2021) decreases the likelihood of extreme El Niño precipitation and increases the likelihood of extreme dry events associated with La Niñas. This result is consistent with the conclusion that the recent negative phase of Pacific Decadal Variability has aided the California drought (Dong et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…A negative Pacific Decadal Variability trend (as recently observed;1979-2019(Dong et al 2021) decreases the likelihood of extreme El Niño precipitation and increases the likelihood of extreme dry events associated with La Niñas. This result is consistent with the conclusion that the recent negative phase of Pacific Decadal Variability has aided the California drought (Dong et al 2021). Indeed recent work has demonstrated the importance of SST in making a skilful prediction of the 2012 United States drought (Kam et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Modulation of ENSO teleconnections over North America by the Pacific decadal oscillation

Maher

Kay

Capotondi

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In this study, we investigate whether the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) can enhance or diminish El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) temperature and precipitation teleconnections over North America using five single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs). The use of SMILEs facilitates a statistically robust comparison of ENSO events that occur during different phases of the PDO. We find that a positive PDO enhances winter and spring El Niño temperature and precipitation teleconnections and diminishes La Niña teleconnections. A negative PDO has the opposite effect. The modulation of ENSO by the PDO is mediated by differences in the location and strength of the Aleutian Low and Pacific Jet during ENSO events under different phases of the PDO. This modulation is a simple combination of the individual effects of the PDO and ENSO over North America. Finally, we show that ENSO and the PDO can be used to evaluate the likelihood of the occurrence of temperature and precipitation anomalies in different regions, but cannot be used as a deterministic predictor of these anomalies due to the large variability between individual events.

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Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers

Petrova,

Tarin‐Carrasco,

Sekulic

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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California is one of the major uncertainty hotspots for climate change, as climate models have historically been split between projecting wetter and drier future conditions over the region. We analysed the future (mid‐century and end‐century) projections of California's winter precipitation changes from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and studied its respective model agreement in comparison to the previous CMIP5 projections. Over northern California more than two thirds of the models in each ensemble agree on wetter future conditions. However, over southern California both ensembles show highly uncertain precipitation changes, with model projections almost equally divided between wetter or drier conditions. Projected end‐century precipitation changes range from −30% to +70% in CMIP5 and −20% to +80% in CMIP6. The CMIP6 ensemble mean changes are generally wetter and show larger model disagreement compared to CMIP5. Distribution of year‐to‐year precipitation indicates more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, with some models suggesting that the five wettest years account for as much as ~55% of the 20‐year rainfall, and the five driest for as little as ~5%. Dynamically, both ensembles project weakened subsidence over Baja California that is stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, in line with the wetter mean conditions in CMIP6. In the western tropical Pacific we find strengthening of the Hadley circulation in CMIP6 that is not seen in CMIP5, and more El Niño than La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. More CMIP6 models also project an increase in ENSO events compared to CMIP5, and a stronger impact of ENSO on California's precipitation is found in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. These factors also contribute to larger model disagreement and more extremely wet or dry years over southern California in CMIP6.

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Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Cited by 26 publications

References 62 publications

Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on IPO-constrained precipitation

Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on IPO-constrained precipitation

Modulation of ENSO teleconnections over North America by the Pacific decadal oscillation

Future precipitation changes in California: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 intermodel spread and its drivers

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