Uncertainty management in enroute air traffic control: a field study exploring controller strategies and requirements for automation

Abstract

The management of uncertainty is a critical aspect of current as well as future air traffic control operations. This study investigated: (1) sources of uncertainty in enroute air traffic control, (2) strategies that air traffic controllers adopt to cope with uncertainty, (3) the tradeoffs and contingencies that influences the adoption of these uncertainties, and (4) the requirements for system design that support controllers in following these strategies. The data were collected using a field study in two enroute air traffic control centres, involving ''over the shoulder'' observation sessions, discussions with air traffic controllers, and document analysis. Three types of uncertainty coping strategies were identified: reducing uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty, and increasing uncertainty. The RAWFS heuristic (Lipshitz and Strauss in Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 69:149-163, 1997) and anticipatory thinking (Klein et al. in Anticipatory thinking, Proceedings of the eighth international NDM conference, Pacific Grove, CA, 2007) were used to identify reduction and acknowledgement strategies. Recent suggestions by Grote (Saf Sci 71:71-79, 2015) were used to further explore strategies that increase uncertainty. The study presents a new framework for the classification of uncertainties in enroute air traffic control and identified the uncertainty management strategies and underlying tactics, in context of contingencies and trade-offs between operational goals. The results showed that controllers, in addition to reducing and acknowledging uncertainty, may deliberately increase uncertainty in order to increase flexibility for other actors in the system to meet their operational goals. The study describes new tactics for acknowledging and increasing uncertainty. The findings were summarized in the air traffic controller complexity and uncertainty management model. Additionally, the results bring to light system design recommendations that allow controllers to follow these different coping strategies, including (1) the design of alerts, (2) the transparency of prediction tools, and (3) system flexibility as a requirement for acknowledging and increasing uncertainty. The results are particularly important as uncertainty is likely to increase in future operations of enroute air traffic control, requiring automation support for controllers. Implications for future air traffic management scenarios as envisioned within the SESAR Joint Undertaking (SESAR JU in European ATM Master Plan, 2 eds, 2012) and NextGen (FAA in FAA's NextGen implementation plan, 2014) operational concepts are discussed.

Design implications for teamwork in ATC

“…Some factors are interchangeable (mutual performance monitoring and team leadership), but these still affect the other factors, their relative importances, and how they are manifested. Corver and Grote (2016) showed that ATCOs prefer to do what is "common sense" or "what is safe" in situations where they do not know the established procedures, and in situations in which established procedures are not applicable. This agrees with the findings of the present study, where the ATCOs emphasise that shared mental models are important.…”

Understanding and overcoming horizontal separation complexity in air traffic control: an expert/novice comparison

“…In both cases, the ATCO will not trust the tool and abandon its use. Corver and Grote (2016) proposed a field study exploring the sources of uncertainties and the different management strategies adopted by controllers. Building tools to help controllers in their detection and resolution task has been source of experimental research since the early 1990s.…”

Visualizing complexities: the human limits of air traffic control

“…Uncertainty management plays a key role in air traffic control. Corver and Grote (2016) recently proposed a field study exploring sources of uncertainties and management strategies adopted by controllers. Some of the first research experiments on controller assistance tools were carried out in the 1990s.…”