Uncertainty management strategies: Lessons from the regional implementation of the Water Framework Directive in the Netherlands

Raadgever, G. T.; Dieperink, Carel; Driessen, Peter; Smit, Arnoud; Rijswick, Marleen van

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2010.11.001

Cited by 60 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…Integration of the lessons of adaptive water management into water security (see Pahl-Wostl et al, 2013a;Scott et al, 2013) move beyond measures to increase 'water use efficiency' in production, to focus instead on learning, adapting, and consumption patterns (see also Clement, 2013), very much like the adaptive stream of 'climate-smart' agriculture. Allan et al (2013) for instance, make a convincing case for the utility of adaptive water management for dealing with the social-ecological complexity of water security in China's National Water Policy, the European Floods Directive and Australia's Murray-Darling Basin Plan (see also Raadgever et al, 2011;Sigel et al, 2010).…”

Section: Beyond Supply-side Prescriptions: Welcoming Adaptive Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reductionist and integrative research approaches to complex water security policy challenges

Zeitoun

Lankford

Krueger

et al. 2016

Global Environmental Change

145

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(2016) Reductionist and integrative research approaches to complex water security policy challenges. Global Environmental Change, 39 . pp. 143-154. ISSN 0959-3780 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016 Reuse of this item is permitted through licensing under the Creative Commons: AbstractThis article reviews and contrasts two approaches that water security researchers employ to advance understanding of the complexity of water-society policy challenges. A prevailing reductionist approach seeks to represent uncertainty through calculable risk, links national GDP tightly to hydro-climatological causes, and underplays diversity and politics in society. When adopted uncritically, this approach limits policy-makers to interventions that may reproduce inequalities, and that are too rigid to deal with future changes in society and climate. A second, more integrative, approach is found to address a range of uncertainties, explicitly recognise diversity in society and the environment, incorporate water resources that are less-easily controlled, and consider adaptive approaches to move beyond conventional supply-side prescriptions. The resultant policy recommendations are diverse, inclusive, and more likely to reach the marginalised in society, though they often encounter policy-uptake obstacles. The article concludes by defining a route towards more effective water security research and policy, which stresses analysis that matches the state of knowledge possessed, an expanded research agenda, and explicitly addresses inequities.Complex Water Security

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Section: Beyond Supply-side Prescriptions: Welcoming Adaptive Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reductionist and integrative research approaches to complex water security policy challenges

Zeitoun

Lankford

Krueger

et al. 2016

Global Environmental Change

145

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show abstract

“…The main sources of uncertainty are as follows: data quality, lack of consistency between related activities, different interpretations of pollutant categories, definitions, and so on. Therefore, emission inventories and projections should include uncertainty estimations to aid the decision-making process (Miller et al, 2012;Raadgever et al, 2011;Schultz, 2008). However, in this context, a new notion of uncertainty is used that includes not only epistemic uncertainty, but also ontological uncertainty (unpredictability) and ambiguity (the existence of multiple framings) (Raadgever et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Lumbreras

Andrés

Pérez

et al. 2014

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the "with measures" scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance.Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

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“…A incerteza é o resultado negativo da complexidade do projeto (VIDAL; MARLE; BOCQUET, 2008), originada da imprevisibilidade do sistema do projeto, da falta de conhecimento completo ou ainda da ambiguidade (RAADGEVER et al, 2011). Assim, percebem-se pelo menos dois fatores que definem a incerteza: a complexidade e a ambiguidade.…”

Section: Lista De Figurasunclassified

“…Dentre as estratégias para lidar com incerteza, verifica-se o aprendizado, o selecionismo ou abordagem paralela (CHUN, 1994;LENFLE, 2011;SOLT;BAILEY, 2008;RICE et al, 2008;SOMMER;LOCH, 2004) e flexibilidade gerencial ou gerenciamento híbrido entre o flexível e o rígido (BIAZZO, 2009;HUCHZERMEIER;LOCH, 2001;SANTIAGO;BIFANO, 2005;THOMKE;REINERTSEN, 1998;. Raadgever et al (2011) classificam as seguintes estratégias para lidar com incerteza: ignorar, gerar conhecimento, interagir e estratégia de enfrentamento (coping strategy) a partir de uma densa fonte de citações. Howell, Windahl e Seidel (2010) propõem um modelo baseado na teria da contingência, definindo estratégias em função do nível de incerteza e das consequências.…”

Section: Lista De Figurasunclassified

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Gestão de incertezas em projetos complexos: quadro conceitual e estudos de caso.

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Uncertainty management strategies: Lessons from the regional implementation of the Water Framework Directive in the Netherlands

Cited by 60 publications

References 30 publications

Reductionist and integrative research approaches to complex water security policy challenges

Reductionist and integrative research approaches to complex water security policy challenges

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Gestão de incertezas em projetos complexos: quadro conceitual e estudos de caso.

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