Uncertainty, Shifting Power and Credible Signals in US-China Relations: Why the “Thucydides Trap” Is Real, but Limited

Yoder, Brandon K.

doi:10.1007/s11366-019-09606-1

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Доминирующая нация может начать превентивную войну, не дожидаясь, пока восходящая держава обойдет ее по мощи. Однако при этом следует учитывать «фактор Феникса» -даже лежащая в руинах страна может практически полностью восстановиться за 20 лет, после чего ее сложно будет удержать от реванша [Organski, Kugler 1980: 142-144 [Tellis 2013;Johnston 2019;Mastro 2019;Yoder 2019;] и мир может стать еще более анархичным ; другие уверены в том, что «новая биполярность» не приведет к открытому противостоянию возможности упрочить свое лидерство в реалиях нового мирового порядка [Bergsten, Freeman, Lardy, Mitchell 2008: 25].…”

Section: методология исследованияunclassified

U.S. - China: “Power Transition” and the Outlines of “Conflict Bipolarity”

Degterev

Рамич

Tsvyk

2021

Vestn. Ross. univ. družby nar., Ser. Meždunar. otnoš.

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This article focuses on the phenomenon of global rivalry between China and the United States in terms of power transition theory, which is scientifically new and relevant due to the increased attention to the so-called Thucydides trap, in which, as some experts claim, both states have fallen. This paper presents a different vision of the global rivalry for leadership in the shaping of a new world order, which has already taken the form of overt non-violent confrontation and manifests itself in technological and trade wars as well as scientific and cultural rivalries. Nevertheless, despite the non-violent nature of the rivalry, this process is followed by an increase in the military capabilities of states, mainly projected in the basins of the Pacific and Indian Oceans (Indo-Pacific region). The methodological basis of the paper is power transition theory, which has been developed over the past 60 years by A.F. Organsky, J. Kugler, D. Lemke, R. Tammen and other researchers, united in the TransResearch Consortium. The authors argue that the analytical prism of this theory is more relevant to the analysis of current global rivalry than the classical neorealist balance of power approach. Through the prism of the theory the issues of rebalancing the global system of economic governance are analyzed. Also, a comparative analysis of the US-Japanese and US-Chinese trade and technological wars is carried out. Both the military and aggregate capabilities of two countries on a global scale and in the Indo-Pacific region are examined. The conclusion contains findings and comments on the impact of U.S. - China rivalry on the system of international relations.

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Section: методология исследованияunclassified

U.S. - China: “Power Transition” and the Outlines of “Conflict Bipolarity”

Degterev

Рамич

Tsvyk

2021

Vestn. Ross. univ. družby nar., Ser. Meždunar. otnoš.

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“…Estudos da Agência Central de Inteligência dos Estados Unidos, dentre outros, projetaram que a China seria uma potência militar de primeira classe e rivalizaria com os Estados Unidos em potência global até 2020 (Layne 2008). Muitos argumentaram que a ascensão da China, bem como o medo e a incerteza que ela instilaria nos Estados Unidos acabariam por levar a uma guerra hegemônica (Chan et al 2018, Wang 2018, Yoder 2019.…”

Section: O Problema E a Justificativa Para O Estudounclassified

“…Há cerca de 200 anos, Napoleão Bonaparte advertiu que o mundo deveria "deixar a China dormir; quando ela acordasse, abalaria o mundo." Uma vez que o mundo de hoje é dominado pela hegemonia dos Estados Unidos, abalar o mundo significa abalar os Estados Unidos (Allison 2017, Chan, Hu e He 2018, Kugler e Organski 1989, Wang 2018, Yoder 2019.…”

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The Declining Hegemony of the United States and the Growing Influence of China: A Critical Perspective on Power Transition Theory in the 21st Century

Gwadabe

2021

Austral

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The apparent eroding in the hegemonic power of the United States and the sustained growth of China has triggered debate as to whether the rise of China will be peaceful or conflictual. Structural realism posits that the world is characterised by the anarchic ordering principle in which there is no central authority sitting above the states. Therefore, the absence of a “leviathan” on the international system automatically makes every state equal on the system which created an atmosphere of competition for the maximisation of power for survival. On a similar line of reasoning, the Power Transition theory as a variant theory within realism postulates that when the international system is structured based on the principle of hierarchy, peace will reign. It means that when international relations are regulated and influenced by a dominant power, the international system becomes stable. But the emergence of a dissatisfied powerful nation to challenge the hegemon usually ends up in war. Based on this assumption, Power Transition theorists argued that the rise of China to rival the dominance of the United States could not be peaceful. The Power Transition theory has influenced many academics to have the belief that the two nations will end up in “Thucydides’ Trap”. This belief has aggravated the matter beyond the reasonable level and has instilled panic in the mind of foreign policymakers which could jeopardise world peace and international cooperation. Hence, this paper aims to critically evaluate the deficiency of the Power Transition theory in the 21st century in explaining the current United States-China relations and the prospect of peace or war between the two nations using process tracing. Accordingly, in this paper, it is argued that in the 21st century, an armed confrontation between the United States and China is highly unlikely. Because in today’s world, nations (including the United States and China) are intertwined by the forces of globalisation which created inexorable economic interdependence. Additionally, there is rapid advancement in military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction which came with the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Consequently, there is a need to revisit the Power Transition theory to accommodate contemporary factors. The inclusion of the current variables into the Theory will make it applicable and adequately fit in the discourse of international relations and global politics of the 21st-century international system.

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“…But it is safe to contend that these threat perceptions are misperceived, as they are motivated by fear and are not the results of objective assessments by each side. Accordingly, the US-China strategic competition largely originates from the low credibility of the cooperative signals sent by China, and further conflict is avoidable according to the logic of status conflict and power transition theories (Larson and Shevchenko 2019;Yoder 2019;Wang 2019).…”

Section: Why Are Historical Analogies Always Misleading?mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Cold War analogy’s misrepresentation of the essence of US–China strategic competition

Yin

2020

China Int Strategy Rev.

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Uncertainty, Shifting Power and Credible Signals in US-China Relations: Why the “Thucydides Trap” Is Real, but Limited

Cited by 12 publications

References 39 publications

U.S. - China: “Power Transition” and the Outlines of “Conflict Bipolarity”

U.S. - China: “Power Transition” and the Outlines of “Conflict Bipolarity”

The Declining Hegemony of the United States and the Growing Influence of China: A Critical Perspective on Power Transition Theory in the 21st Century

The Cold War analogy’s misrepresentation of the essence of US–China strategic competition

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