Underdetermination and Theory Succession from the Perspective of String Theory

Abstract

This article investigates the implications of string theory for the conception of scientific theory confirmation. The classical understanding of theory confirmation is based on the assumption that scientific theory building is underdetermined by the available empirical data. Several arguments are presented, which suggest a devaluation of this 'principle of scientific underdetermination' in the context of string theory. An altered conception of scientific progress emerges, that is not based on the notion of theory succession.

The No Alternatives Argument

“…In this case, the non-empirical evidence consists in the observation that scientists have not yet found an alternative to H. In accordance with our previous analysis, this observation is taken to indicate that, in some sense, there are actually not too many alternatives to H. Focusing on the case of string theory, Dawid (2006Dawid ( , 2009 calls this the argument of no choice.…”

Delimiting the Unconceived

“…In some cases like string theory or eternal inflation, those strategies, in the understanding of many of the given theories' exponents, justify a fairly high degree of trust in the theory's viability. [3,4,6] has analyzed the question whether arguments of non-empirical theory assessment can be epistemically significant. It was claimed that a specific class of those arguments can be reconstructed in a way that demonstrates their epistemic significance and, from a Bayesian perspective, justifies calling them "non-empirical confirmation".…”

String dualities and empirical equivalence

“…One might also consider a weaker form of underdetermination, however: underdetermination of theory building under the available data. Underdetermination in this sense has been called "transient" underdetermination by Sklar (1975) and Stanford (2006) and scientific underdetermination in Dawid (2006Dawid ( , 2013. Scientific underdetermination does not imply the existence of fully empirically equivalent theories.…”

“…It merely implies that there are theories between which one cannot decide based on the available data. Dawid (2006Dawid ( , 2013 makes the point that assessments of scientific underdetermination play a crucial role in motivating trust in string theory in the absence of empirical confirmation. The analysis of empirical equivalence cannot, on its own, provide such reasons.…”