<p>Aqueous precipitation of transition
metal oxides often proceeds through non-equilibrium phases, whose appearance
cannot be anticipated from traditional phase diagrams. Without a precise
understanding of which metastable phases form, or their lifetimes, targeted
synthesis of specific metal oxides can become a trial-and-error process. Here, we derive a new thermodynamic potential for the
free-energy of a metal oxide in water, which reveals a hidden metastable energy
landscape above the equilibrium Pourbaix diagram. By combining this ‘Pourbaix
potential’ with classical nucleation theory, we interrogate how solution
conditions can influence the multistage oxidation pathways of manganese oxides.
We calculate that even within the same phase stability region of a Pourbaix
diagram, subtle variations in <i>p</i>H and
redox potential can redirect a crystallization pathway through different
metastable phases. Our theoretical framework offers a predictive platform to navigate
through the thermodynamic and kinetic energy landscape towards the rational
synthesis of target metal oxide phases.</p>