Understanding Future Change of Global Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models

Wang, Bin; Jin, Chunhan; Liu, Jian

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0993.1

Cited by 194 publications

(162 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The results based on the ensemble mean of ALL-GCMs are in agreement with the recent studies based on CMIP6-GCMs (Z. Chen et al, 2020;Cook et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2020). The projections based on the multimodel ensemble mean of GCMs are considerably influenced by a few GCMs that are highly sensitive to convective precipitation in response to warming .…”

Section: Evaluation Of Cmip6-gcms and Causes Of The Wet Summer Monsoosupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Z. Chen et al (2020) and Wang et al (2020) found an increase in the Indian summer monsoon precipitation under the warming climate based on CMIP6-GCMs. However, these recent studies (Z.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…However, these recent studies (Z. Chen et al, 2020;Cook et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2020) reported the decline in drought and increase in the monsoon precipitation in the future based on the ensemble mean of CMIP6-GCMs and did not evaluate the GCMs for their skill to simulate the summer monsoon over South Asia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, the recent studies (Z. Chen et al, 2020;Cook et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2020) that project a decline in the drought frequency and increase in the monsoon season precipitation over South Asia using the ensemble mean of CMIP6-GCMs may be primarily due to the GCMs that have less skill in simulating the summer monsoon. Here using the 16 CMIP6-GCMs and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), we examine the projected changes in the drought frequency in South Asia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble

Aadhar

Mishra

2020

JGR Atmospheres

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Recent studies based on the ensemble mean of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs, CMIP6-GCMs hereafter) reported a decline in drought frequency over South Asia in the projected future climate. Here using the simulations from 16 CMIP6-GCMs, we examine the potential causes of declining droughts in South Asia. We show that the projections based on the multimodel ensemble mean CMIP6-GCMs are not reliable over South Asia. The multimodel ensemble mean is influenced mainly by the low-skill GCMs, which show high bias in simulating the monsoon (June-September) season precipitation during the observed period (1951-2014). The low-skill GCMs show a higher (20-30%) increase in the convective precipitation with a rise in the global mean temperature under the warming (1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C worlds) climate. The GCMs with less bias (BEST-GCMs) in the monsoon season precipitation and better seasonal cycle representation show lower sensitivity of convective precipitation to rise in global mean temperature. BEST-GCMs exhibit significantly different projections in comparison to the multimodel ensemble mean from all 16 GCMs (ALL-GCMs). In contrast to ALL-GCMs, BEST-GCMs project an increase in the frequency of droughts in South Asia under the future climate. Therefore, the projected risk of droughts over South Asia under the 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C warming levels is higher than previously reported based on the ensemble mean of CMIP6-GCMs. A projected increase in the drought frequency in South Asia will have considerable implications for agricultural production and water availability.

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Section: Evaluation Of Cmip6-gcms and Causes Of The Wet Summer Monsoosupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Z. Chen et al (2020) and Wang et al (2020) found an increase in the Indian summer monsoon precipitation under the warming climate based on CMIP6-GCMs. However, these recent studies (Z.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble

Aadhar

Mishra

2020

JGR Atmospheres

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“…The changes in spatial pattern of monsoon precipitation has been attributed to the shifts of tropical circulation (Chadwick et al, 2013; Held & Soden, 2006; Monerie et al, 2020; Rowell & Chadwick, 2018). Wang et al (2020) pointed out that two greenhouse gas (GHG)‐induced thermodynamic effects, i.e., the increase of specific humidity and the increase of atmospheric stability due to top‐heavy heating, tend to offset each other; on the other hand, the GHG‐induced horizontally differential warming results in the robust “NH‐warmer‐than‐SH” and “land‐warmer‐than‐ocean” patterns, as well as an “El Niño–like warming” pattern, driving circulation change (the GHG‐induced dynamic effect) that plays a fundamental role in shaping the spatial patterns of the GM precipitation changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sources of the Intermodel Spread in Projected Global Monsoon Hydrological Sensitivity

Cao

Wang

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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The projected monsoon hydrological sensitivity, namely, the precipitation change rate per kelvin of global warming, shows substantial intermodel spread among 40 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. The hydrological sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is negatively correlated with that of the Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon. The intermodel spread of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon hydrological sensitivity is mainly attributed to the projected interhemispheric temperature gradients and the associated low-level cross-equatorial flows. The intermodel spread of the Afro-Asia summer monsoon sensitivity is rooted in the projected continent-ocean thermal gradients, while the spread of the North American monsoon sensitivity is related to the projected sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic. These findings suggest that further constraining monsoon hydrological sensitivity requires a better projection of the warming rate between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and between the land and ocean, and the sea surface warming pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic. Plain Language Summary Global monsoon precipitation has far-reaching impacts on agriculture planning and social-economic sustainable development. Previous studies suggested that the increasing of global monsoon precipitation is sensitive to global warming rate, but the precipitation sensitivities, i.e., the precipitation change rate per kelvin of global warming, are also different among state-of-the-art coupled models. The causes of uncertainty in the monsoon precipitation sensitivity and the associated dominant physical mechanism remain elusive. Based on 40 state-of-the-art coupled climate models, we reveal that the greenhouse gas-induced interhemispheric temperature gradient causes the uncertainty of global monsoon precipitation sensitivity by changing the strengths of monsoon circulation and Hadley circulation and altering the Intertropical Convergence Zone position. Our results highlight the importance of a reliable projection of interhemispheric differential warming to the future change of global monsoon precipitation.

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Anthropogenic influence on the intensity of extreme precipitation in the Asian‐Australian monsoon region in HadGEM3‐A‐N216

Liu

Qiao

et al. 2021

Atmospheric Science Letters

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The Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) region is characterized as abundant summer monsoon rainfall, which provides fresh water resources for highdensity population there. The research uses HadGEM3-A-N216 model simulations to compare the change of extreme rainfall intensity in the AAM region with and without anthropogenic influences. Although the anthropogenic forcing exerts a weak impact on the climatological mean distribution of the extreme precipitation, it significantly increases the extreme precipitation intensity at each degree in most parts of the AAM region, especially for the northern East Asia, the Bay of Bengal, and Australia. As the extreme degree increases from the 50-98%, the extreme precipitation intensity in the northern East Asia, the Bay of Bengal, and the Australia increase more and more rapidly, while that in the southern East Asia changes from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend. Overall, the stronger extreme precipitation is accompanied by a stronger growth trend under the anthropogenic forcing.

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Understanding Future Change of Global Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models

Cited by 194 publications

References 38 publications

On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble

On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble

Sources of the Intermodel Spread in Projected Global Monsoon Hydrological Sensitivity

Anthropogenic influence on the intensity of extreme precipitation in the Asian‐Australian monsoon region in HadGEM3‐A‐N216

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