Understanding “plausibility”: A relational approach to the anticipatory heuristics of future scenarios

López, Sergio Urueña

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2019.05.002

Cited by 31 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Plausibility means that the futures described by the scenarios can be considered to be theoretically 'occurable' ("could happen") and are not completely unthinkable (Kosow & Gaßner, 2008). So far, there is no scientific consensus on the concrete meaning or operationalization of plausibility for scenarios (Urueña, 2019). Wiek et al (2013) propose a 'retrospective' plausibility check for constructing and evaluating future scenarios.…”

Section: Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Course change: Navigating urban passenger transport toward sustainability through modal shift

Müller

Reutter

2021

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Staying within the 2 C (preferably 1.5 C) limit requires fast and fundamental system changes, also in urban passenger transport. Shifting car traffic to environmentally friendly transport modes is one central strategy to make urban transport more sustainable and climate friendly. However, in most cities car use remains high. Therefore, this paper analyzes what course change is needed regarding direction, scale and speed of change for urban sustainability and climate protection reasons. The paper analyzes the role of modal shift as a strategy in itself and in relation to land-use (avoid) and efficiency (improve) measures. The paper draws on insights from European frontrunning cities and explorative forecasting scenarios calculated with the sophisticated integrated land-use transport model "Ruhr Region 2050". The paper suggests that a significant reduction of urban car use is needed (direction) that roughly equals a fast halving of car use (scale), which has proven feasible under the current socio-political conditions by annual reduction rates of 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points of the trip-based modal share of car use (speed). Significantly reducing car use requires comprehensive and high-intensive measures that go far beyond usual practices. Modal shift measures need to play a crucial role in integrated approaches with land-use (avoid) and efficiency (improve) measures because they have the potential to significantly reduce car use and CO 2 emissions and because they can produce comparatively fast effectswhich makes modal shift measures first aid approaches to achieve a fast "bending of the curve" of excessive car use and growing CO 2 emissions.

show abstract

Section: Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Course change: Navigating urban passenger transport toward sustainability through modal shift

Müller

Reutter

2021

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…no gaps in the narrative), and plausibility (i.e. reasonable to conclude the scenario could happen given technical and social constraints; Urueña, 2019). We focus on plausible scenarios, rather than the merely possible or the more stringent probable, as it balances opening up the future while not being so broad as to become unfocused or create a need to rank based on likely risk (Ramírez and Selin, 2014).…”

Section: Election 2020 Scenario Development Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Anticipating and addressing the ethical implications of deepfakes in the context of elections

Diakopoulos¹,

Johnson

2020

New Media & Society

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

New media synthesis technologies are rapidly advancing and becoming more accessible, allowing users to make video and audio clips (i.e. deepfakes) of individuals doing and saying things they never did or said. Deepfakes have significant implications for the integrity of many social domains including that of elections. Focusing on the 2020 US presidential election and using an anticipatory approach, this article examines the ethical issues raised by deepfakes and discusses strategies for addressing these issues. Eight hypothetical scenarios are developed and used as the basis for this analysis, which identifies harms to voters who view deepfakes, candidates and campaigns that are the subjects of deepfakes, and threats to electoral integrity. Four potential forms of intervention are discussed with respect to multi-stakeholder responsibility for addressing harms, including education and media literacy, subject defense, verification, and publicity moderation.

show abstract

“…As such, the FSs on which anticipation works should not be interpreted as representations denoting what will be the case (predictivist approach), but rather as constructs that express what we currently believe will be the case (and how we frame that future)-under the consideration of certain assumptions. It is precisely those assumptions and frames of thought about the future and not the future per se that comprise the objects of analysis, scrutiny, and negotiation within foresight practices [116].…”

Section: Anticipations May (Re)produce An Illusion Of Control Over the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…1). The evaluation of (im)plausibility and (un)desirability can be considered as the socio-epistemic device that both expands and narrows the space of the FSs considered in anticipatory practices [116].…”

Section: Responsibility Through the Search For The Future's Plausibility And Desirabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Responsibility through Anticipation? The ‘Future Talk’ and the Quest for Plausibility in the Governance of Emerging Technologies

López

2021

Nanoethics

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In anticipatory governance (AG) and responsible innovation (RI), anticipation is a key theoretical and practical dimension for promoting a more responsible governance of new and emerging sciences and technologies. Yet, anticipation has been subjected to a range of criticisms, such that many now see it as unnecessary for AG and RI. According to Alfred Nordmann, practices engaging with ‘the future’, when performed under certain conditions, may reify the future, diminish our ability to see what is happening, and/or reproduce the illusion of control over the future. Several authors have stressed that these critiques fail to capture the heterogeneous character of anticipatory practices, and yet research on the question of what particular kind of socio-epistemic engagements with ‘the future’ AG and RI aim to enact through anticipation remains fragmentary and their underlying rationale under-theorised. This article aims to advance the theoretical characterisation and problematisation of anticipation as key interventive tools for AG and RI. By distinguishing between four modes of anticipation and heuristically testing them against Nordmann’s critiques, the article argues that despite his assessment failing to recognise the heterogeneity of anticipatory practices considered valuable for AG and RI, it reinforces the relevance of performing certain modes of anticipatory exercises, namely critical-hermeneutic ones. Thus, anticipation continues to be a necessary heuristic dimension for AG and RI. More concretely, the article maintains that such anticipatory heuristics may find their radical constructive and critical-reflective character in the dynamics of inclusive scrutiny and negotiation about the (im)plausibility and (un)desirability of the envisioned or (co-)created futures.

show abstract

Understanding “plausibility”: A relational approach to the anticipatory heuristics of future scenarios

Cited by 31 publications

References 34 publications

Course change: Navigating urban passenger transport toward sustainability through modal shift

Course change: Navigating urban passenger transport toward sustainability through modal shift

Anticipating and addressing the ethical implications of deepfakes in the context of elections

Responsibility through Anticipation? The ‘Future Talk’ and the Quest for Plausibility in the Governance of Emerging Technologies

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About