Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil Since June 2014

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2557316

Cited by 39 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 29 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Following a period of relatively stable oil prices, the refiner acquisition cost of crude oil dropped from 100 dollars per barrel in June of 2014 to 45 dollars per barrel in January of 2015, while the ICS increased from 82.5 to 98 index points over the same period (see Figure 1). Baumeister and Kilian (2016a) and Kilian (2017) find that more than half of the oil price drop between June and December of 2014 was associated with a decline in global real economic activity and increased oil production in the United States and other countries such as Canada and Russia, that was predictable as of June 2014. The rest was associated with an unexpected decline in inventory demand in July of 2014 and an unexpected weakening of the global economy in December of 2014, respectively (see Kilian 2017).…”

Section: Historical Decompositionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Güntner¹,

Linsbauer²

2018

J of Money Credit Banking

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper investigates how the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment responds to oil price shocks. While oil supply shocks play only a limited role, the effect of aggregate demand shocks is positive for the first few months and negative thereafter. A typical other oil demand shock has a significant negative impact for up to 2 years. By studying the responses of individual survey questions, we find that expectations of future inflation and a change in real household income as well as perceived vehicle and house buying conditions are the main transmission channels of oil supply and demand shocks.

show abstract

Section: Historical Decompositionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Güntner¹,

Linsbauer²

2018

J of Money Credit Banking

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The US Islamic market has remained efficient throughout the sample period except for the 2008–2016 for the short‐term horizon. This can be attributed to a fall in oil‐related investments during this period (Baumeister & Kilian, ).…”

Section: Empirical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing the Relationship between Oil Prices and Islamic Stock Markets

Arshad

2017

J of App Econs and Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study is novel in measuring the volatility and efficiency of Islamic stock markets of top oil‐importing countries. Daily prices of six Islamic stock markets are analysed for volatility using EGARCH and efficiency using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, over three different economic regimes. The results indicate a concurrent movement of oil price volatility and Islamic stock market volatility, as Islamic stock markets are heavily reliant on the real economy, which faces the effects of oil price changes. Emerging markets faced higher volatility and lower efficiency than developed counterparts, owing to fast‐paced economic and infrastructural growth, affecting the real sector of the economy.

show abstract

“…35 According to Cooke (2016), as of 2016, US carbon emissions are down 10 per cent from 2005 levels, the US government is reducing public funding for carbonbased power plants, wind power has tripled and solar power has increased 30 times over. 36 See Baumeister and Kilian (2015) for a review and analysis of the 2014 petroleum price decline. behaviour, driven by expectation formation, futures trading and stock-holding (Domanski et al, 2015).…”

Section: United States United Kingdommentioning

confidence: 99%

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Taylor

Tyers

2017

Economic Record

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Slack OECD economic performance and weaker macroeconomic policy support Summers's reuse of the phrase ‘secular stagnation’. Globalisation has redirected growth towards emerging economies, and anticipated rates of return on investment are impaired by perceived risk, institutionalised risk aversion, ageing and dependency, declining commitments to public investment and research and development with rising shares directed to health, retained trade distortions, industrial concentration and slower human capital accumulation, not to mention unexpected global abundance of fossil fuels and a slower Chinese economy. The information and literature supporting these concerns is reviewed and implications for global and Australian policy are inferred.

show abstract

Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil Since June 2014

Cited by 39 publications

References 29 publications

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Analysing the Relationship between Oil Prices and Islamic Stock Markets

Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About