Understanding the Maintenance of Rivalries and Causes of Wars in the Middle East

Abstract

When assessing the rivalries and wars, understanding their causes is essential. Employing panel regression model, this article examines the data from 1962 to 2001. We find that arms races, contiguity, and joint autocracy play an essential role in making states rival in the Middle East. Rivalry among these states develops and persists when proximate authoritarian states are involved in building their armed forces, suggesting that in the presence of military buildups, autocratic states deliberately manipulate the issues at stake, making the rivalry increasingly hostile. This study also reports that military buildup and contiguity increase the probability of war among the regional rivals. This is because proximity enables states to project their limited military prowess within the periphery, leading to escalation. Howbeit, this study also argues that high level of authoritarianism does not correlate with wars. Instead, autocrats are wary of shaking their fragile states, using armed rivalry only as an outlet of inner tensions.