Understanding the Sensitivity of a GCM Simulation of Amazonian Deforestation to the Specification of Vegetation and Soil Characteristics

Lean, J.; Rowntree, P. R.

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1216:utsoag>2.0.co;2

Cited by 158 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Different models may give different feedback results (even different in sign) on the same basin, as demonstrated for instance for the evaluation of the impact of the Amazon deforestation on the basin hydroclimatology reviewed by Lean and Rowntree [1997]. Further complications arise when considering the magnitude of the land use change impact on climate.…”

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Impact of the Sudd wetland on the Nile hydroclimatology

Mohamed

Hurk

Savenije

et al. 2005

Water Resources Research

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[1] Large evaporation occurs over the Sudd wetland, a huge swamp located on the upper Nile. Historically, water resources planners have had the intention to reduce the Sudd evaporation by shortcut channels (e.g., Jonglei canal). The question is: What is the effect of draining the Sudd wetland on the regional water cycle and on the Nile water flow? A regional climate model has been applied to the Nile Basin, with a special modification to include routing of the Nile flood over the Sudd. The impact of the wetland on the Nile hydroclimatology has been studied by comparing two model scenarios: the present climatology and a drained Sudd scenario. The results indicate that draining the entire Sudd has negligible impact on the regional water cycle owing to the relatively small area covered by the wetland. The runoff gain would then be up to $36 Gm 3 yr À1 . However, the impact on the microclimate is large. The relative humidity will drop by 30-40% during the dry season, and temperature will rise by 4°-6°C. The impact during the wet season is small.

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Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Impact of the Sudd wetland on the Nile hydroclimatology

Mohamed

Hurk

Savenije

et al. 2005

Water Resources Research

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“…These values are close to those obtained by Correia et al (2008) where the authors evaluated the climate changes due to deforestation using the limited area ETA model. Numerical simulations with global circulation and regional model performed by Lean and Rowntree (1997) and Gandu et al (2004), respectively, have shown less significant increase, in the surface temperature, than obtained here. Most studies used the physical parameters of savanna to represent the deforested areas in the tropics while the present study used the parameters of the degraded pasture in Amazonia (CORREIA et al, 2005).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Land Cover and Greenhouse Gas (Ghg) Concentration Changes on the Hydrological Cycle in Amazon Basin: A Regional Climate Model Study

Rocha¹,

Correia²,

Satyamurty³

et al. 2015

ABClima

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The Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) coupled with the dynamic vegetation scheme known as General Energy and Mass Transport Model (GEMTM) and land cover scenarios in the Amazon Basin and greenhouse gas concentration increase scenarios produced by Community Climate System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research are used to evaluate the impacts on the hydrological cycle of the Amazon Basin. The 2050 estimates of deforestation and the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (A2) impact significantly the energy and moisture budgets. The dynamic structure of the atmosphere and consequently the moisture and mass convergence in the region are projected to be significantly different in 2050. The changes are more intense in the simulations with the combined effect of deforestation and greenhouse gas increase. In the deforestation scenario, a positive feedback is established in which changes in the regional circulation reduced the moisture convergence and precipitation in the region. In the increased greenhouse gas concentration scenario, with and without deforestation, a negative (positive) feedback is established in the rainy (dry) season in which the regional circulation changes (moisture convergence) are responsible for the reduction of precipitation. The results indicate that rapid destruction of the forest and the climate changes due to human activity can become irreversible, and that changes on hydrological cycle and perturbation in the complex relation between soil, plant and atmosphere can trigger significant changes in the ecosystems in the Amazon, once these systems do not present resilience or capacity to adapt to the magnitude of changes in the climate.Key words: Amazon basin, Deforestation, GHG Scenarios, IPCC-AR4, BRAMS. IMPACTOS NA COBERTURA VEGETAL E NAS MUDANÇAS DE CONCENTRAÇÃO DE GASES DE EFEITO ESTUFA (GEE) NO CICLO HIDROLÓGICO DA BACIA AMAZÔNICA: UM MODELO DE ESTUDO CLIMÁTICO REGIONAL RESUMO:O modelo regional BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) acoplado ao esquema de vegetação dinâmica General Energy and Mass Transport Model (GEMTM) e cenários de usos da terra na Amazônia e de aumento na concentração dos gases do efeito estufa na atmosfera produzidos a partir das simulações climáticas do Modelo de Circulação Geral Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), do National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), são utilizados para avaliar os impactos no ciclo hidrológico da _________________Revista Brasileira de Climatologia_________________ ISSN: 1980-055x (Impressa) 2237 Ano 10 -Vol. 15 -JUL/DEZ 2014 8 bacia amazônica. A projeção de desflorestamento para o ano de 2050 e cenário de emissão dos gases do efeito estufa (A2) afetam de forma significativa os balanços de energia e de água, a estrutura dinâmica da atmosfera e, consequentemente, a convergência de umidade e massa na bacia. As mudanças são mais intensas na simulação que existe o efeito combinando do desflorestamento e aumento dos gases do efeito estufa. No cenário de desflorestamento, o m...

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“…Polcher and Kaval 1994;Sud et al 1996;Lean and Rowntree 1997;Hahmann and Dickinson 1997). An atmosphere GCM coupled to a simple ocean mixed layer model was used for this type of study by Henderson-Sellers et al (1993).…”

Section: Tropical Deforestationmentioning

confidence: 99%

CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part II: model sensitivity

Ganopolski¹,

Petoukhov²,

Rahmstorf³

et al. 2001

Climate Dynamics

211

131

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A set of sensitivity experiments with the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 was performed to compare its sensitivity to changes in dierent types of forcings and boundary conditions with the results of comprehensive models (GCMs). We investigated the climate system response to changes in freshwater¯ux into the Northern Atlantic, CO 2 concentration, solar insolation, and vegetation cover in the boreal zone and in the tropics. All these experiments were compared with the results of corresponding experiments performed with dierent GCMs. Qualitative, and in many respects, quantitative agreement between the results of CLIMBER-2 and GCMs demonstrate the ability of our climate system model of intermediate complexity to address diverse aspects of the climate change problem. In addition, we used our model for a series of experiments to assess the impact of some climate feedbacks and uncertainties in model parameters on the model sensitivity to dierent forcings. We studied the role of freshwater feedback and vertical ocean diffusivity for the stability properties of the thermohaline ocean circulation. We show that freshwater feedback plays a minor role, while changes of vertical diusivity in the ocean considerably aect the circulation stability. In global warming experiments we analysed the impact of hydrological sensitivity and vertical diusivity on the long-term evolution of the thermohaline circulation. In the boreal and tropical deforestation experiments we assessed the role of an interactive ocean and showed that for both types of deforestation scenarios, an interactive ocean leads to an additional cooling due to albedo and water vapour feedbacks.

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Understanding the Sensitivity of a GCM Simulation of Amazonian Deforestation to the Specification of Vegetation and Soil Characteristics

Cited by 158 publications

References 23 publications

Impact of the Sudd wetland on the Nile hydroclimatology

Impact of the Sudd wetland on the Nile hydroclimatology

Impacts of Land Cover and Greenhouse Gas (Ghg) Concentration Changes on the Hydrological Cycle in Amazon Basin: A Regional Climate Model Study

CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part II: model sensitivity

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