Understanding Uncertainty

Abstract

There is more information we don't know than we do know for makiig most critical decisions involving risks. Our focus must be on understanding and effectively dealing with what we don't know. As a first step in achieving this focus, a classification of the types of uncertainties that must be addressed and the sources of these types of uncertainties is presented. The purpose is to provide a framework for discussion about addressing uncertainty, particularly in risk analyses.Both uncertainty and variability of information are addressed using four main classes: 1) Metrical 2) Structural 3) Temporal 4) Translational uncertainty and variability in measurement, uncertainty due to complexity, including models and their validation, uncertainty in future and past states uncertainty in explaining uncertain results.The factors that contribute uncertainty and error to these classes are identified, and their interrelationships indicated. Both subjective and objective aspects are addressed. ~~~~ ~ KEY WORDS Uncertainty; variability; measurement; value diversity; membership variability.

Social science perspectives on natural hazards risk and uncertainty

“…Broadly, they all group the 'kinds' of uncertainty into two strands -epistemic and aleatory -that are coherent with use in the bio-physical sciences. Morgan and Henrion (1990) and Rowe (1994), in their typologies of uncertainty, identify human choice dimensions as important, but in addressing how to deal with these issues in their articles they still propose more refined analysis and data acquisition, bringing these dimensions within the epistemic strand.…”

Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis

“…In essence, uncertainty is the absence of information; or is an expression of the degree to which a value is unknown (IPCC, 2004(IPCC, , 2004aRowe, 1994). Uncertainty can be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a range of values calculated by various models) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts).…”

“…For the IPCC TAR Assessment, Moss and Schneider (2000) considered four major groups dealing with (1) confidence in the theory, (2) observations (measurements), (3) models, and (4) consensus within a discipline. Rowe (1994) considering common aspects of risk analysis divided uncertainties into temporal (past and future), structural (complexity), metric (measurements), and translational (explaining uncertain results). Distinguishing two broad classes of uncertainty -"statistical" (associated with parameter or observational value that are not known precisely) and "structural" (referring to causal relationships between variables) -the IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change pointed out substantial difficulties to assess structural uncertainty and limited possibilities to do it in any comprehensive formal way (IPCC, 2004a).…”

Tratamento de incertezas no planejamento do fechamento de mina.

“…Para estabelecer um conceito apropriado aos objetivos da pesquisa, procurou-se, principalmente, trabalhos acerca de incertezas em processos decisórios relativos a gestão de recursos ambientais, situação que se assemelha à problemática do fechamento de mina, haja vista a perspectiva de longo prazo e sustentabilidade. A identificação do conceito de incerteza relacionada ao fechamento de mina, foi fundamentada em Rower (1994), Zimmermann (2000), Walker et al, (2003), Brugnach et al(2008) e Sigel et al (2010), sem desprezar considerações de outros autores). A classificação das causas das incertezas foi definida com base nas pesquisas de Brugnach et al(2008), Zimmermann (2000), Ascough II et al (2008), Walker et al (2003) aliada a experiência da pesquisadora.…”