Unfolding the relation between global temperature and ENSO

Abstract

[1] An analysis of global temperature and ENSO data indicates that their relationship is more complicated than currently thought. Indeed, it appears that there are two complimenting aspects to this relation. The first (and known) aspect expresses the fact that global temperature increases after an El Nino event and a La Nina event follows an El Nino event. Thus, El Nino forces global temperature. While this is an important result, it is not the entire picture. If it were, ENSO would be independent of global temperature. The second aspect, which is proposed here, suggests a deeper connection between global temperature and ENSO. We find that ENSO is not independent and that positive (negative) global temperature tendency tends to trigger an El Nino (La Nina). Thus, in a warming climate El Nino events will be more frequent than La Nina events. The methodology presented in this paper may elucidate how realistically coupled ocean-atmosphere models simulate the response of climate to global change.

Spatial and temporal precipitation variability in the Okavango–Kwando–Zambezi catchment, southern Africa

“…The change from P1 to P2 in frequency of ENSO phases (more warm phase versus cold phase) and the increased association of warm phase ENSO and dry years coincides with positive (negative) atmospheric temperature fluctuations of recent decades that trigger global warm (cold) phase ENSO events (Tsonis et al, 2005). Tropospheric warming in the latter half of the 20th century could also be a factor in higher frequency of warm phase ENSO events (Flohn and Kapala, 1989).…”

Interannual variations in vegetation activities and climate variability caused by ENSO in tropical rainforests

“…The first issue is the relationship between vegetation activities and decadal climate changes. El Niñ o events will occur more frequently due to the greenhouse effect (Tsonis et al 2005). We can guess that tropical rainforests will be affected more seriously by the climate changes derived from ENSO activities.…”

Wavelet analysis of the singular spectral reconstructed time series to study the imprints of solar–ENSO–geomagnetic activity on Indian climate

“…Several recent studies of solar-geomagnetic effects on climate have been examined on both global as well as on regional scales (Lean and Rind, 2008;Benestaed and Schmidt, 2009;Meehl et al, 2009;Kiladis and Diaz, 1989;Pant and Rupa Kumar, 1997;Gray et al, 1992;Wiles et al, 1998;Friis and Svensmark, 1997;Rigozo et al, 2005;Feng et al, 2003;Tiwari and Srilakshmi, 2009;Chowdary et al, 2006Chowdary et al, , 2014Appenzeller et al, 1998;Proctor et al, 2002;Tsonis et al, 2005;De Freitas and Mclean, 2013). The Sun's long-term magnetic variability caused by the sunspots is considered to be one of the primary drivers of climatic changes.…”