Unforgiven: Russian intelligence vengeance as political theater and strategic messaging

Gioe, David V.; Goodman, Michael S.; Frey, David

doi:10.1080/02684527.2019.1573537

Cited by 17 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…But it is visible more broadly, for instance, in the terror of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, or China’s suppression operations in Xinjaing. Similar characteristics are clearly visible in Putin’s Russia, particularly the notion that dissent, however, voiced and from whatever point in society – be it the grieving mother in the wake of the Kursk submarine disaster who confronted Putin in a press conference, or a former GRU officer, exchanged in a spy-swap and living in Salisbury – is disloyalty, an affront, and intolerable (Gioe et al, 2019; Traynor, 2000).…”

Section: Putin and The Autocrat’s Intelligence Paradoxmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…To be clear, this article does not claim that Putin and his intelligence machinery are incompetent. There is ample evidence of their ability to effectively conduct complex human and digital intelligence collection operations and active measures, domestically and internationally (Gioe et al, 2019). There is also some evidence that Russian intelligence can, on occasion, astutely assess the nature of foreign target states.…”

Section: Putin’s Intelligence Machinerymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The autocrat’s intelligence paradox: Vladimir Putin’s (mis)management of Russian strategic assessment in the Ukraine War

Dylan

Gioe

Grossfeld

2022

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations

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Autocratic leaders rely on intelligence machineries for regime and personal security. They often manage large, powerful, unaccountable organisations, which they hold close. But, despite their close relationship with - and reliance upon - intelligence, autocrats also frequently struggle to use it to enhance decision-making and foreign policy, and consequently suffer avoidable intelligence failures. This article argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is illustrative of this broader, though understudied, pattern of autocratic mismanagement of strategic intelligence. The invasion was both spurred and accompanied by a catastrophic intelligence failure, the responsibility for which rests with Vladimir Putin, the arbiter of a system with limited capacity to offer dispassionate strategic assessments. His failure is characteristic of autocratic regimes assessing foreign developments, including Putin’s Soviet predecessors. This article contributes to the emerging scholarship on intelligence in autocratic regimes by examining Putin’s use of intelligence in the Ukraine War in the context of the broader literature on intelligence and decision.

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Section: Putin and The Autocrat’s Intelligence Paradoxmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Putin’s Intelligence Machinerymentioning

confidence: 99%

The autocrat’s intelligence paradox: Vladimir Putin’s (mis)management of Russian strategic assessment in the Ukraine War

Dylan

Gioe

Grossfeld

2022

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations

Self Cite

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“…When North Korea conducted a missile test over Japan, share prices worldwide plummeted due to fears of potential war in the region (Huh & Pyun, 2018). The killing of political opponents by the Russian government carried out in the UK has also caused political and trade relations between the two countries to stagnate (Gioe et al, 2019). In addition, the Russian government's support for rebels in Georgia and Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine have made the political situation in eastern Europe unstable (Tsygankov, 2015).…”

Section: Disturbance To Regional Stabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of Political Stability to Support Foreign Investment in Indonesia

Tjandrasa

2021

ijbs

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What investors often consider before deciding to invest in various countries is the political situation. The risks faced by investors in the event of political instability are regulatory changes, legal disputes, forced takeovers of companies, disruption to regional stability, policies against acts of terrorism, and changes in state ideology. The purpose of this study is to find a determinant of political stability in Indonesia that will be useful for investors and multinational companies, and the government in maintaining political stability. Systematic secondary data sampling from January 2015 to December 2019 was used for explanatory study purposes and to build a model. This study concludes that the rule of law, control of corruption, and oil prices have a significant effect on political stability in Indonesia, while the inflation rate does not have a significant effect on political stability in Indonesia. The novelty of this research is the formation of a political stability model for Indonesia and why an increase in control of corruption actually has a negative effect on political stability in Indonesia.

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“…In 1995, the Japanese cult organisation Aum Shinrikyo used Sarin gas in a terrorist attack on the Tokyo Subway. 12,13,14 More targeted examples of CW use can be found in the case of the Russian defector Sergei Skripal in the UK 15,16 and North Korean Kim Jong-nam in Malaysia. 17,18 International law, which has not been unanimously adhered to, classifies CWs as illegitimate weapons of war, with the Geneva Protocol (1925), the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (1972) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (1993) all banning their use.…”

Section: A Diverse Universe Of Cases Of Cws Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Chemical Weapons and public health: assessing impact and responses

Ekzayez

Flecknoe

Lillywhite

et al. 2019

Journal of Public Health

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Background The recent use of Chemical Weapons (CWs) in armed conflicts and terror attacks highlights the importance of understanding their full impact in order to inform an effective response. This article argues that while the consequences of CWs on individual health have dominated our understanding of the impact of these weapons, far less attention has been directed to their impact on public health. Methods A review of the literature on the health impact of CWs was conducted, and two case studies of their use in urban settings were explored - Halabja in northern Iraq in 1988 and throughout Syria’s ongoing conflict. Results The importance of considering the long-term health consequences of CW use and their impact on healthcare and health systems was demonstrated. Conclusions This article highlights the importance of supporting future research on the topic and proposes a framework for assessing the public health impact of CW use.

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Unforgiven: Russian intelligence vengeance as political theater and strategic messaging

Cited by 17 publications

References 9 publications

The autocrat’s intelligence paradox: Vladimir Putin’s (mis)management of Russian strategic assessment in the Ukraine War

The autocrat’s intelligence paradox: Vladimir Putin’s (mis)management of Russian strategic assessment in the Ukraine War

Determinants of Political Stability to Support Foreign Investment in Indonesia

Chemical Weapons and public health: assessing impact and responses

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