Unit Roots and British Industrial Growth, 1923–92

Abstract

The statistical properties and historical characteristics of British industrial production are examined. Since 1923 production appears to follow a segmented trend stationary process. Prior historical information and recursive searching are used to identify discontinuities in 1973 and 1979. The wartime shift to fuller employment was accompanied by a productivity crash, and trend industrial growth changed little. The major shift in production trend was at the time of the 1973 oil shock. Discontinuity around 1979 took the form of a crash, and accelerating productivity contributed to industrial employment collapsing to levels not experienced since the nineteenth century.

Cliometrics and Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory and Applications

“…For the full sample, Table 18 and 19 below, taken from Greasley and Oxley (1997b), present results for the sample sub-periods 1900-1938 and 1946-1987. The results from Table 18 lead to nonrejection of the non-convergence null for all cases.…”

Determination of Industrial Competitiveness on Manufacturing Industry Growth in Palembang City

“…It is Simons (2003), Ohno and Imaoka (2004), Suslova and Volchkova (2007) and Greasley and Oxley (2007), which prove empirically the role of industrial structures in influencing industrial growth. According to them the industrial structure has a positive effect on industrial growth.…”

“…5. Greasley and Oxley (2007), who examined the competitiveness and growth of industry in the United Kingdom (UK) for the period 1980-2005, found empirical evidence that there were 4 (four) variables that had an influence on industrial growth, namely product competitiveness, structure industry, technology and capital. The results show that all variables have a positive and statistically significant influence on industrial growth in the UK.…”

Cliometrics and Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory and Applications

“…On the basis of the results repeated below as Table 3, we identify an alternating TS/DS/TS characterization of the data for the period 1700–1913 and present a case for dating the British Industrial Revolution as 1780–1851, see Greasley and Oxley (1994a, 1994b, 1996b, 1997c, 1997f). Furthermore, Greasley and Oxley (1996a, 1997b) use Perron (1989) and Zivot and Andrews (1992) methods to identify crashes and breaks in the post 1913 data coinciding with World War I; the post (WW1) decline; a 1973 trend break and a 1979 crash, see Table 4 below. This leads to an alternating TS/DS/TS characterization for the whole sample period 1700–1992.…”

“…Aubyn (1999) finds in his study of convergence, where he treats the USA as the leader, that in all cases that pre‐ and post‐World War II results differ. Tables 18 and 19 taken from Greasley and Oxley (1997b, g), present results for the sample sub‐periods 1900–1938 and 1946–1987. The results from Table 18 lead to non‐rejection of the non‐convergence null for all cases.…”