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Abstract:Genuine Savings (GS) has been much used in recent years as an indicator of a country's sustainability. According to some theorists (e.g. Arrow et al, 2012), under certain conditions a country with a positive level of GS should experience non-declining future utility, given the assumption of unlimited substitutability among all forms of capital (sometimes called "weak" sustainability). This paper reports the first very long-run tests of GS (also called comprehensive investment or adjusted net savings) as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being. We assemble data for British capital back to 1765, and construct several net investment measures which are used as indicators of two alternative measures of future well-being: consumption per capita and real wages. An allowance for a "value of time" due to exogenous technological progress is included in some GS measures, and we demonstrate the importance of this measure and the choice of discount rate over the very long-run. On the whole, our results do not reject the postulated relationship between GS and future wellbeing, and show GS can be a forward looking indicator of future well-being for periods of up to 100 years.

We propose a novel framework to analyse the macroeconomic impact of noncommunicable diseases. We incorporate measures of disease prevalence into a human capital augmented production function, which enables us to determine the economic costs of chronic health conditions in terms of foregone gross domestic product (GDP). Unlike previously adopted frameworks, this approach allows us to account for i) variations in human capital for workers in different age groups, ii) mortality and morbidity effects of non-communicable diseases, and iii) the treatment costs of diseases. We apply our methodology to China, Japan, and South Korea, and estimate the economic burden of chronic conditions in five domains (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, respiratory diseases, diabetes, and mental health conditions). Overall, total losses associated with these non-communicable diseases over the period 2010-2030 are$16 trillion for China (measured in real USD with the base year 2010), $5.7 trillion for Japan, and$1.5 trillion for South Korea. Our results also highlight the limits of cost-effectiveness analysis by identifying some intervention strategies to reduce disease prevalence in China that are cost beneficial and therefore a rational use of resources, though they are not cost-effective as judged by conventional thresholds.

Human capital is increasingly believed to play an important role in the growth process, however, adequately measuring its stock remains controversial. In this paper three general approaches to measurement are identified; cost-based, income-based and educational stock-based. This survey focuses on the first two approaches and provides a critical review of the theories and their applications to data from a range of countries. Particular emphasis is placed upon the work of Fraumeni (1989, 1992) and some new results for New Zealand based upon their approach are also presented.