Unravelling the myths of R0 in controlling the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak: A modelling perspective

Mohd, Mohd Hafiz; Sulayman, Fatima

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109943

Cited by 39 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…In our previous study, the model key critical parameters were investigated and discussed. The reader can see more recently published works in this area in [5] , [6] , [7] , [8] , [9] , [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics models for identifying the key transmission parameters of the COVID-19 disease

Shahzad

Abdel-Aty

Attia

et al. 2021

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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After the analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy, and France the WHO has declared the COVID-19 a pandemic. There are around 100 research groups across the world trying to develop a vaccine for this coronavirus. Therefore, the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the COVID–19 pandemic is needed along with the effect of rapid test infection identification on controlling the spread of COVID-19. Mathematical models with computational simulations are the effective tools that help global efforts to estimate key transmission parameters and further improvements for controlling this disease. This is an infectious disease and can be modeled as a system of non-linear differential equations with reaction rates. In this paper, we develop the models for coronavirus disease at different stages with the addition of more parameters due to interactions among the individuals. Then, some key computational simulations and sensitivity analysis are investigated. Further, the local sensitivities for each model state concerning the model parameters are computed using the model reduction techniques: the dynamical models are eventually changed with the change of parameters are represented graphically.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics models for identifying the key transmission parameters of the COVID-19 disease

Shahzad

Abdel-Aty

Attia

et al. 2021

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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“…However, some medical practitioners have questioned this approach, which reckon that COVID-19 testings should be conducted as wide as possible so that most (if not all) of the possible cases in the country would be detected. Then, the possible patients could be placed on a 14-day quarantine and be treated so as to contain the spread of the disease [ 18 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of control interventions on COVID-19 population dynamics in Malaysia: a mathematical study

Abidemi

Zainuddin²,

Aziz³

2021

Eur. Phys. J. Plus

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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed a serious threat to both the human health and economy of the affected nations. Despite several control efforts invested in breaking the transmission chain of the disease, there is a rise in the number of reported infected and death cases around the world. Hence, there is the need for a mathematical model that can reliably describe the real nature of the transmission behaviour and control of the disease. This study presents an appropriately developed deterministic compartmental model to investigate the effect of different pharmaceutical (treatment therapies) and non-pharmaceutical (particularly, human personal protection and contact tracing and testing on the exposed individuals) control measures on COVID-19 population dynamics in Malaysia. The data from daily reported cases of COVID-19 between 3 March and 31 December 2020 are used to parameterize the model. The basic reproduction number of the model is estimated. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the effect of various control combination strategies involving the use of personal protection, contact tracing and testing, and treatment control measures on the disease spread. Numerical simulations reveal that the implementation of each strategy analysed can significantly reduce COVID-19 incidence and prevalence in the population. However, the results of effectiveness analysis suggest that a strategy that combines both the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical control measures averts the highest number of infections in the population.

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“… 2020 ; Lin et al. 2020 ; Mohd and Sulayman 2020 ; Duan and Zhang 2020 ; Chintalapudi et al. 2020 ; Fredj and Chrif 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Computational Approach For Real-Time Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Kalman Filtering and Forecasting via Unobservable Spectral Components of Experimental Data

Gomes

Serra

2021

J Control Autom Electr Syst

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Unravelling the myths of R0 in controlling the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak: A modelling perspective

Cited by 39 publications

References 6 publications

Dynamics models for identifying the key transmission parameters of the COVID-19 disease

Dynamics models for identifying the key transmission parameters of the COVID-19 disease

Impact of control interventions on COVID-19 population dynamics in Malaysia: a mathematical study

Computational Approach For Real-Time Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Kalman Filtering and Forecasting via Unobservable Spectral Components of Experimental Data

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