Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance.

Krueger, Joachim I.; Mueller, Ross A.

doi:10.1037//0022-3514.82.2.180-188

Cited by 18 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…This study also documented that those surgical trainees who were in the lowest-performing quartile often overestimated their competency-specific performance irrespective of rater group, while the highest-performing residents tended to underestimate their skills. Superficially, these findings may appear to be a regression to the mean performance, 13 but the magnitude of the differences between self-other is greatest in the lowest-performing quar-tiles and for the behavioral skills, especially with nurse raters. In previous studies of the reliability of each rating group, nurses were the most consistent raters but used the rating scale more widely to differentiate high-and low-performing residents.…”

Section: Commentmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Moreover, they demonstrated that high performers slightly underestimate their performance. Krueger and Mueller, 13 on the other hand, attribute their finding of "being unskilled and unaware" to a statistical regression to the mean and relate it to a "better than average" phenomenon. For example, when college professors were asked whether they performed "above-average work," 94% of college professors indicated they were in this category, a figure clearly mathematically impossible 14 but perceptually possible.…”

Section: Conceptual Framework and Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Resident Self-Other Assessor Agreement

2011

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To review the literature on selfassessment in the context of resident performance and to determine the correlation between self-assessment across competencies in high-and low-performing residents and assessments performed by raters from a variety of professional roles (peers, nurses, and faculty).Design: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected anonymous self-assessment and multiprofessional (360) performance assessments by competency and overall.Setting: University-based academic general surgical program.Participants: Sixty-two residents rotating in general surgery.Main Outcome Measures: Mean difference for each self-assessment dyad (self-peer, self-nurse, and selfattending physician) by resident performance quartile, adjusted for measurement error, correlation coefficients, and summed differences across all competencies.Results: Irrespective of self-other dyad, residents asked to rate their global performance overestimated their skills. Residents in the upper quartile underestimated their specific skills while those in the lowest-performing quartile overestimated their abilities when compared with faculty, peers, and especially nurse raters. Moreover, overestimation was greatest in competencies related to interpersonal skills, communication, teamwork, and professionalism.Conclusions: Rater, level of performance, and the competency being assessed all influence the comparison of the resident's self-assessment and those of other raters. Self-assessment of competencies related to behavior may be inaccurate when compared with raters from various professions. Residents in the lowest-performing quartile are least able to identify their weakness. These data have important implications for residents, program directors, and the public and suggest that strategies that help the lowest-performing residents recognize areas in need of improvement are needed.

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Section: Commentmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Conceptual Framework and Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resident Self-Other Assessor Agreement

2011

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“…These investors may therefore choose to sell the stock to divest of an unwanted investment (arguably aiding in disciplining the market price), or, believing that they now have an information advantage over some number of less sophisticated investors, to actively attempt to “game” the market. For example, there is a significant literature in psychology concerning how individuals who are the least skilled at a particular task (in this context, unsophisticated investors sifting through accounting information to reveal earnings management) are especially prone to overestimate their ability to do so relative to other individuals (e.g., Kruger and Dunning [1999]). 6 Under these conditions, the naïveté of the unsophisticated investors does not lie in being uninformed about the earnings management, but rather in their overconfidence in thinking that they have an informational advantage compared to other investors (cf., Bloomfield, Libby, and Nelson [1999]).…”

Section: Background and Hypotheses Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…6 6 This “unskilled and unaware” hypothesis has held up to empirical scrutiny under a number of studies (e.g., Krueger and Mueller [2002]), including situations in which the unskilled were given financial incentives to win or lose money based on accuracy (Williams and Gilovich [2008]). …”

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confidence: 99%

Expected Mispricing: The Joint Influence of Accounting Transparency and Investor Base

Elliott

Krische

Peecher

2010

J of Accounting Research

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We examine how accounting transparency and investor base jointly affect financial analysts' expectations of mispricing (i.e., expectations of stock price deviations from fundamental value). Within a range of transparency, these two factors interactively amplify analysts' expectations of mispricing—analysts expect a larger positive deviation when a firm's disclosures more transparently reveal income‐increasing earnings management and the firm's most important investors are described as transient institutional investors with a shorter‐term horizon (low concentration in holdings, high portfolio turnover, and frequent momentum trading) rather than dedicated institutional investors with a longer‐term horizon (high concentration in holdings, low portfolio turnover, and little momentum trading). Results are consistent with analysts anticipating that transient institutional investors are more likely than dedicated institutional investors to adjust their trading strategies for near‐term factors affecting stock mispricings. Our theory and findings extend the accounting disclosure literature by identifying a boundary condition to the common supposition that disclosure transparency necessarily mitigates expected mispricing, and by providing evidence that analysts' pricing judgments are influenced by their anticipation of different investors' reactions to firm disclosures.

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“…Described by David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, it is a cognitive bias that leads people to overestimate their abilities. This lack of insight and illusory superiority can affect judgment 5 6. Furthermore, skills in one area may induce a sense of invulnerability in another, and the effect may persist despite appropriate feedback 7…”

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confidence: 99%

The stroke interventionalist

Ansaar

2016

J NeuroIntervent Surg

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Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance.

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Resident Self-Other Assessor Agreement

Resident Self-Other Assessor Agreement

Expected Mispricing: The Joint Influence of Accounting Transparency and Investor Base

The stroke interventionalist

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