Urban Household Water Demand in Beijing by 2020: An Agent-Based Model

Yuan, Xiyue; Wei, Yi‐Ming; Pan, Su-Yan; Jin, Juliang

doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0649-4

Cited by 39 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…While household water consumption does not account for a huge proportion of total water consumption, there was still a rather significant growth in consumption from 9.4% in 1997 to 13.6% in 2016 ( Figure 2, ecological water consumption statistics began in 2003). Following intensive efforts to establish a water-conserving society in China since 2002, there has been a slowdown in the growth of the ratio of urban household water consumption to total water consumption [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With time, the predicted results of the water resource demand over different periods of time in China has gradually been proven; facts have shown that some of the predicted results were generally higher than the actual water consumption quantity for the corresponding periods [12]. On the one hand, higher forecasts might be due to certain cognitive errors, such as misconceptions that water consumption quantity will definitely increase with socioeconomic development, developing industries will definitely increase water consumption in great quantities, and urbanization will lead to huge increases in urban water consumption [13]. These misconceptions are actually due to the lack of understanding of the laws behind increased water demand arising from socioeconomic development, which stem from the failure to clearly ascertain the mechanisms and laws of water resource demand and the failure to explore the actual water demand from the perspective of water consumers [14,15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Conceptual Framework and Computational Research of Hierarchical Residential Household Water Demand

Pan

Hou

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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Although the quantity of household water consumption does not account for a huge proportion of the total water consumption amidst socioeconomic development, there has been a steadily increasing trend due to population growth and improved urbanization standards. As such, mastering the mechanisms of household water demand, scientifically predicting trends of household water demand, and implementing reasonable control measures are key focuses of current urban water management. Based on the categorization and characteristic analysis of household water, this paper used Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs to establish a level and grade theory of household water demand, whereby household water is classified into three levels (rigid water demand, flexible water demand, and luxury water demand) and three grades (basic water demand, reasonable water demand, and representational water demand). An in-depth analysis was then carried out on the factors that influence the computation of household water demand, whereby equations for different household water categories were established, and computations for different levels of household water were proposed. Finally, observational experiments on household water consumption were designed, and observation and simulation computations were performed on three typical households in order to verify the scientific outcome and rationality of the computation of household water demand. The research findings contribute to the enhancement and development of prediction theories on water demand, and they are of high theoretical and realistic significance in terms of scientifically predicting future household water demand and fine-tuning the management of urban water resources.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conceptual Framework and Computational Research of Hierarchical Residential Household Water Demand

Pan

Hou

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Integrating system dynamics and ABM, Nikolic et al (2013) developed a management tool that captured temporal and spatial dynamics of a physical-social-economic-biologic system. Some examples of ABM in water resources management include: Berger et al (2007), Yang et al (2009), Nikolic et al (2013), Yuan et al (2014), Tamene et al (2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Water Resources Conflicts: Modelling Behavior in a Decision Tool

Akhbari

Grigg

2015

Water Resour Manage

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While technical tools for analysis of water resources systems have advanced, the major issue in resolving problems focuses on the interaction of human and natural systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) has recently been used as an effective tool to develop integrated human-environmental models. One of the main challenges of ABM application in water resources management is to identify and characterize key agents. We provided recommendations to characterize agents normally involved in water decisions, and developed a framework for a conflict management tool, comprised of three models: a watershed simulation, an optimization, and a behavioral simulation model. The optimization-simulation model determined tradeoffs between the objective functions. The behavioral simulation model, developed based on ABM, simulated stakeholders interactions and their reactions to water allocation decisions. This model evaluated the applicability of different management scenarios to achieve specific rates of reduction in agricultural water allocations, selected from the tradeoffs. To develop and adjust this model, key stakeholders were identified in the San Joaquin River (SJR) watershed, California, and a survey was administered. The proposed recommendations and framework provides a new and innovative way to identify institutional interconnections, formulate and simulate their interactions, and create a hydrologic-environmental-human interface to support powerful decision-support tools to manage conflicts and make informed, practical decisions in water resources.

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“…Fifteen years after the first social ABM simulation had been developed by Thomas Schelling in 1978 [13], Lansing and Kremer [14] first applied ABM to water resource modelling for the example of a rice irrigation system in Bali. Since then, a large number of ABM frameworks and models have been developed and used to yield insights into water use for irrigation [15][16][17] or for urban households [18][19][20][21][22]. Apart from modelling individual water use sectors, broader ABM applications support water resource management across entire watersheds.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-Based Modelling of a Coupled Water Demand and Supply System at the Catchment Scale

et al. 2019

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Water is of uttermost importance for human well-being and a central resource in sustainable development. Many simulation models for sustainable water management, however, lack explanatory and predictive power because the two-way dynamic feedbacks between human and water systems are neglected. With Agent-based Modelling of Resources (Aqua.MORE; here, of the resource water), we present a platform that can support understanding, interpretation and scenario development of resource flows in coupled human–water systems at the catchment scale. Aqua.MORE simulates the water resources in a demand and supply system, whereby water fluxes and socioeconomic actors are represented by individual agents that mutually interact and cause complex feedback loops. First, we describe the key steps for developing an agent-based model (ABM) of water demand and supply, using the platform Aqua.MORE. Second, we illustrate the modelling process by application in an idealized Alpine valley, characterized by touristic and agricultural water demand sectors. Here, the implementation and analysis of scenarios highlights the possibilities of Aqua.MORE (1) to easily deploy case study-specific agents and characterize them, (2) to evaluate feedbacks between water demand and supply and (3) to compare the effects of different agent behavior or water use strategies. Thereby, we corroborate the potential of Aqua.MORE as a decision-support tool for sustainable watershed management.

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Urban Household Water Demand in Beijing by 2020: An Agent-Based Model

Cited by 39 publications

References 36 publications

Conceptual Framework and Computational Research of Hierarchical Residential Household Water Demand

Conceptual Framework and Computational Research of Hierarchical Residential Household Water Demand

Managing Water Resources Conflicts: Modelling Behavior in a Decision Tool

Agent-Based Modelling of a Coupled Water Demand and Supply System at the Catchment Scale

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