Urban shrinkage and growth: Measurement and determinants of economic resilience in the Pearl River Delta

Abstract

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, China witnessed gradual shrinkage of cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In this study, we introduce the concept of economic resilience to analyse urban growth and shrinkage in the context of a rapidly-urbanising region. Multiple regression analysis is performed to explore the determinants of economic resilience in the PRD. By measuring resistance in the shrinking phase and recoverability in the growing phase in a group of cities in the PRD, this study distinguishes four scenarios and investigates their characteristics from a spatial perspective. The results demonstrate that the financial crisis had a severe and asymmetric influence on this area, indicating more than 15% of cities are faced with shrinking. The spatial distribution of economic resilience indicates a centre-periphery pattern, that is, high economic resilience in the inner ring and low economic resilience in the outer ring of the PRD. The service economy is found to play a significant role in promoting urban economic resilience. Results imply that sound economic policies for enhancing resilience: both poor local financial status and a high degree of export concentration adversely impact resistance, while upgrading the manufacturing economy and stimulating of industrial innovation are conducive to improve recoverability.

Temporal and Spatial Differentiation in Urban Resilience and Its Influencing Factors in Henan Province

“…To accurately reflect the vitality and strength of the urban economy, this paper adopts five economic indicators: the per capita GDP, public financial revenue, total utilized foreign capital, per capita disposable income of urban residents, and proportion of the output values of the secondary and tertiary industries in the GDP. From the perspective of social resilience, social resilience is largely reflected in the ability of an urban system to manage regional risks, which is closely related to social security services, social capital, and the individual development potential of a city [53]. Generally, a high level of social resilience can properly offset the external pressure exerted by the social environment and enhance the ability of a city to resist risks [54].…”

The Economic Resilience Cycle Evolution and Spatial-Temporal Difference of Tourism Industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2019

“…The economic resistance was low in the core PRD cities and high in the peripheral In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, PRD cities suffered more external economic disturbances, and their resistance to crisis events declined markedly from 2000 to 2015. This conclusion is contradictory to the economic resilience of the resilient PRD cities studied based on a broad concept of economic resilience [37]. In a study of the economic resilience of the resilient PRD cities, Zhiwei et al asserted that the 2008 financial crisis posed a severe and asymmetric impact on the PRD, as over 15% of the PRD cities faced recessions [37].…”

“…This conclusion is contradictory to the economic resilience of the resilient PRD cities studied based on a broad concept of economic resilience [37]. In a study of the economic resilience of the resilient PRD cities, Zhiwei et al asserted that the 2008 financial crisis posed a severe and asymmetric impact on the PRD, as over 15% of the PRD cities faced recessions [37]. A center-periphery pattern of distribution spatially characterized the tourism economic resilience.…”

“…More vulnerable regions are less able to resist disturbances and shocks and take longer to recover from shocks, while the opposite is true for less vulnerable regions. Martin et al developed a counterfactual function-based model for measuring regional economic resilience based on indicators such as GDP growth change [20,37], and employment rate [38]. They further elaborated on the evolutionary process of regional resilience of industries.…”

Which Sectors Really Matter for a Resilient Chinese Economy? A Structural Decomposition Analysis

“…For example, at the 2015 Boao Asian Forum, China's President Xi Jinping commented that "the Chinese economy is highly resilient and has much potential, which gives enough room to leverage a host of policy tools". Existing studies of economic resilience have been mainly focused on some specific regions in China such as a study of economic resilience in the Pearl River Delta region [13] and economic resilience of resource-based cities in Northeast China [14]. However, the question of to what extent the Chinese economy as a whole is resilient and what factors contribute to its resilience is still under-researched in the literature.…”