US temperatures: Time trends and persistence

Gil-Alana, Luís A.; Sauci, Laura

doi:10.1002/joc.6128

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(123 reference statements)

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“…Long memory is a feature in time series data that means that observations are highly dependent even if they are far apart in time. Within this category, widely observed in climatological data (Yuan et al, 2014;Jiang et al, 2015;Gil-Alana and Sauci, 2019), a well-known parametric model is the one based on fractional integration that means that the number of differences required in a series to render it stationary I(0) is a fractional value.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A large part of the most recent research is now studying the evolution of temperatures taking into account the long-memory property of the series, both at a global scale, Gil-Alana (2005), dealing with Northern Hemisphere temperatures, and at a local scale, such as Franzke (2010), who explored eight stations in Antarctica, observing longrange memory behavior Jiang et al (2015). also observed long-memory in the air temperatures in 552 Chinese stations;Massah and Kantz (2016) andYuan et al (2014Yuan et al ( , 2015 used detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect long-memory behavior of temperature series in Europe and in Antarctica respectively Gil-Alana and Sauci (2019).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Time trends and persistence in European temperature anomalies

Lenti

Gil-Alana

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper looks at the level of persistence in the temperature anomalies series of 114 European cities. Once this level of persistence has been identified, the time trend coefficients are estimated and the results indicate that most of the series examined display positive trends, supporting thus climate warming. Moreover, the results obtained confirm the hypothesis that long-memory behaviour cannot be neglected in the study of temperatures time series, changing therefore, the estimated effect of global warming.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Time trends and persistence in European temperature anomalies

Lenti

Gil-Alana

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Such tests are widely used in many disciplines, including climatology (Gil-Alana, 2005;Gil-Alana, 2008;Gil-Alana and Sauci, 2019), economics (Gil-Alana and Robinson, 1997), finance (Gil-Alana and Moreno, 2012; Abbritti et al, 2016), and environmental sciences (Solarin and Bello, 2018;Gil-Alana and Trani, 2019).…”

Section: Robinson Tests For Fractional Differentiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long Memory in Earthquake Time Series: The Case Study of the Geysers Geothermal Field

et al. 2021

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The present study aims at proving the existence of long memory (or long-range dependence) in the earthquake process through the analysis of time series of induced seismicity. Specifically, we apply alternative statistical techniques borrowed from econometrics to the seismic catalog of The Geysers geothermal field (California), the world’s largest geothermal field. The choice of the study area is essentially guided by the completeness of the seismic catalog at smaller magnitudes (a drawback of conventional catalogs of natural seismicity). Contrary to previous studies, where the long-memory property was examined by using non-parametric approaches (e.g., rescaled range analysis), we assume a fractional integration model for which the degree of memory is defined by a real parameter d, which is related to the best known Hurst exponent. In particular, long-memory behavior is observed for d > 0. We estimate and test the value of d (i.e., the hypothesis of long memory) by applying parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric approaches to time series describing the daily number of earthquakes and the logarithm of the (total) seismic moment released per day. Attention is also paid to examining the sensitivity of the results to the uncertainty in the completeness magnitude of the catalog, and to investigating to what extent temporal fluctuations in seismic activity induced by injection operations affect the value of d. Temporal variations in the values of d are analyzed together with those of the b-value of the Gutenberg and Richter law. Our results indicate strong evidence of long memory, with d mostly constrained between 0 and 0.5. We observe that the value of d tends to decrease with increasing the magnitude completeness threshold, and therefore appears to be influenced by the number of information in the chain of intervening related events. Moreover, we find a moderate but significant negative correlation between d and the b-value. A negative, albeit weaker correlation is found between d and the fluid injection, as well as between d and the annual number of earthquakes.

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“…Arora et al [59] reported 100-year temperature increase values of 0.92 and 0.09 °C in the maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively, over India. Gil-Alana and Sauci [60] indicated that the highest increase in air temperature was about 2.9 °C over the last 100 years observed at New Jersey and Rhode Island in the United States. Positive trend in air temperature was reported in Bangladesh during the 1961-2008 period [61].…”

Section: Trend Analysis In Annual Maximum and Minimum Temperaturesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Trend Analysis in Annual and Seasonal Precipitation, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Southwest United States

Djaman

Koudahe

Bodian

et al. 2020

Climate

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The objective of this study is to perform trend analysis in the historic data sets of annual and crop season [May–September] precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperatures across the southwest United States. Eighteen ground-based weather stations were considered across the southwest United States for a total period from 1902 to 2017. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test method was used for the significance of the trend analysis and the Sen’s slope estimator was used to derive the long-term average rates of change in the parameters. The results showed a decreasing trend in annual precipitation at 44.4% of the stations with the Sen’s slopes varying from −1.35 to −0.02 mm/year while the other stations showed an increasing trend. Crop season total precipitation showed non-significant variation at most of the stations except two stations in Arizona. Seventy-five percent of the stations showed increasing trend in annual maximum temperature at the rates that varied from 0.6 to 3.1 °C per century. Air cooling varied from 0.2 to 1.0 °C per century with dominant warming phenomenon at the regional scale of the southwest United States. Average annual minimum temperature had increased at 69% of the stations at the rates that varied from 0.1 to 8 °C over the last century, while the annual temperature amplitude showed a decreasing trend at 63% of stations. Crop season maximum temperature had significant increasing trend at 68.8% of the stations at the rates varying from 0.7 to 3.5 °C per century, while the season minimum temperature had increased at 75% of the stations.

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US temperatures: Time trends and persistence

Cited by 16 publications

References 90 publications

Time trends and persistence in European temperature anomalies

Time trends and persistence in European temperature anomalies

Long Memory in Earthquake Time Series: The Case Study of the Geysers Geothermal Field

Long-Term Trend Analysis in Annual and Seasonal Precipitation, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Southwest United States

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