2015
DOI: 10.3201/eid2112.150756
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Use of Capture–Recapture to Estimate Underreporting of Ebola Virus Disease, Montserrado County, Liberia

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Cited by 33 publications
(36 citation statements)
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“…Extrapolating the EVD mortality rate observed in the study to the population of Monrovia (1,144,806 individuals [20]) indicates an estimate between 1,254 and 4,596 EVD deaths in one year in Monrovia, which is in keeping with the 2,300 EVD deaths notified to MOHSW in Monrovia up to March 2015 [21]. Thus, underestimation of EVD case notification data in Monrovia does not seem to be as high as previously estimated [5]. …”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 77%
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“…Extrapolating the EVD mortality rate observed in the study to the population of Monrovia (1,144,806 individuals [20]) indicates an estimate between 1,254 and 4,596 EVD deaths in one year in Monrovia, which is in keeping with the 2,300 EVD deaths notified to MOHSW in Monrovia up to March 2015 [21]. Thus, underestimation of EVD case notification data in Monrovia does not seem to be as high as previously estimated [5]. …”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 77%
“…A capture-recapture study conducted in August 2014 suggested that actual case numbers could be three times higher than the number of notified EVD cases [5]. …”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Those subsequently classified as asymptomatic contacts may therefore have been true survivors. Gignoux et al (2015) used a statistical comparison of two databases of patients covering Montserrado, Liberia, from June to August 2014 to estimate that the true number of clinical EVD cases was threefold higher than the reported number. It is unclear, however, whether this is due to administrative deficiencies or deliberate under-reporting.…”
Section: Hypothesis 1: Evd Outbreaks Have Been Misidentified As Othermentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The first step is estimating the key outbreak parameters: instantaneous reproduction number, reporting rate, and serial interval distribution. These can be estimated from outbreak data using widely available and established methods which increasingly account for sparse data (34)(35)(36)(37). The next step is to implement the method developed in this study to determine the day when the probability of cases arising in the future is deemed acceptable (in this study < 5%), and an outbreak can be declared over.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%