Use of Probabilistics in Campaign Analysis

Abstract

Significant advances have been made recently in applying probabilistic methods to aerospace vehicle concepts.Given the explosive changes that are occurring in today's political, social, and technological climate, it makes practical sense to try and extrapolate these methods to the campaign analysis level. This would allow the assessment of rapidly changing threat environments as well as technological advancements, aiding today's decision makers. The following paper summarizes attempts to apply these methods directly to campaign analysis, and discusses the resulting issues that were identified as potential problem areas. A new approach is postulated which includes the application of probabilistic methods to a fully linked analysis environment.Applying and validating these new methods is an ongoing project.

A Military Effectiveness Analysis and Decision Making Framework for Naval Ship Design and Acquisition

“…ASDL does exactly this in many of their papers; "the aircraft is sized according to the primary mission and subsequently 'flown' on the secondary mission to record the fallout performance" [Soban and Mavris, 2001]. Therefore, this analysis will do exactly the same.…”

“…Such a framework is well suited for RSM analysis "because there is a clear analysis path from the campaign code all the way back to the [DP level], transparency is enhanced and a proper assessment may be conducted" [Soban and Mavris, 2001]. By integrating the ITEM program with the response surface methodology, the ASDL was able to map system level MOPs to mission level MOEs.…”

“…Such a framework is well suited for RSM analysis "because there is a clear analysis path from the campaign code all the way back to the [DP level], [thus] transparency is enhanced and a proper assessment may be conducted" [Soban and Mavris, 2001].…”

“…In this way, the human decision maker can be modeled. [Soban and Mavris, 2001] Finaly, this research provided only one-third of the total UTE framework. The next significant step will be to integrate the work from this thesis with technology insertion analysis as done by [Psallidas, 2003] and design analysis similar to [Goggins, 2001].…”