Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool

Derbyshire, James

doi:10.1002/ffo2.1

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…According to Taplin et al [ 27 ], ToC makes underlying assumptions explicit by delineating the different components: input, outputs, outcomes, and impact [ 28 , 29 ]. ToC can be viewed as both a product and process [ 27 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining the theory of change and realist evaluation approaches to elicit an initial program theory of the MomConnect program in South Africa

Kabongo

Mukumbang

Delobelle

et al. 2020

BMC Med Res Methodol

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Background One of the Sustainable Development Goals is to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 per 100,000 live births by 2030. In South Africa, the flagship National Department of Health MomConnect program was launched in 2014 to strengthen the quality of maternal and child health (MCH) services and improve mortality outcomes. MomConnect was rapidly rolled out with a limited understanding of how and why the program was expected to work even though studies had shown the effectiveness of the MomConnect program in improving the uptake of MCH services. This study aimed to unearth the initial program theory of the MomConnect program based on explicit and implicit assumptions of how the program was organized and expected to work. Methods We conducted a document analysis using design- and implementation-related documents of the MomConnect program guided by the principles of Theory of Change (ToC) and Realist Evaluation (RE). Content and thematic analysis approaches were deductively applied to analyze the documents toward constructing ToC and RE-informed models. Abductive thinking and retroduction were further applied to the realist-informed approach to link program context, mechanisms, and outcomes to construct the initial program theory. Results ToC and RE-informed models illustrated how the MomConnect program was organized and expected to work. The process of constructing the ToC provided the platform for the development of the initial program theory, which identified three critical elements: (1) the central modalities of the MomConnect program; (2) the intended outcomes; and (3) the tentative causal links indicating, in a stepwise manner of, how the outcomes were intended to be achieved. The RE approach ‘enhanced’ the causal links by identifying relevant programmatic contexts and linking the postulated mechanisms of action (empowerment, encouragement, motivation, and knowledge acquisition) to program outcomes. Conclusion The application of ToC and RE provided an explicitly cumulative approach to knowledge generation in unveiling the initial program theory of MomConnect rather than delivering answers to questions of program effectiveness.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining the theory of change and realist evaluation approaches to elicit an initial program theory of the MomConnect program in South Africa

Kabongo

Mukumbang

Delobelle

et al. 2020

BMC Med Res Methodol

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“…Scenarios are widely used as a means of supporting strategic decision making (Bradfield et al, 2005; Derbyshire, 2019). Although there are many definitions of scenario , which can cause “definition confusion” (Spaniol & Rowland, 2018), it is widely regarded as having a plurality and narrative nature (Glenn et al, 2003).…”

Section: Participatory Backcasting and Scenario Design For Sustainabi...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city

Kishita

Masuda

Nakamura

et al. 2022

Futures & Foresight Science

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Designing backcasting scenarios is a powerful approach to the development of sustainable visions and pathways for governments or enterprises in the early stage of their policy‐making or strategic decision‐making process. To date, a number of scholars have proposed various backcasting methods, in which workshops are often used to reflect the voices of stakeholders. However, it is still a challenge to test the validity of scenarios because the process of designing backcasting scenarios is not transparent or shared among involved stakeholders. This also prevents reusing knowledge and intermediate outputs generated during the scenario design process. To solve these problems, this paper aims to develop a method for supporting a backcasting scenario design by introducing computational assistance. A scenario design support system called the sustainable society scenario (3S) simulator is used to visualize a scenario's logical sequence of the scenario in graph format. To demonstrate the proposed method, a case study for the city of Toyama, a Japanese municipality, was performed using three workshops with citizen participation. The results showed that two different scenarios, involving future visions and associated pathways, were developed by reflecting the diversified values of local citizens. The usage of the 3S simulator visualized the logical relations of the described scenarios, which consist of five blocks—problem definition, subgoals to achieve visions, measures to attain these subgoals, verification, and conclusions. This visualization is effective to increase the verifiability and reusability of the scenarios for evidence‐based policy‐making processes.

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“…The authors reported participants learned to see and understand different perspectives and collaborated on proposing feasible management responses. This holistic approach to the future that seeks to manage uncertainties with stakeholders and compare different possible outcomes of decisions is what separates the method from others such as Theories of Change [18] and Participatory Rural Appraisal [19].…”

Section: Participatory Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration: a systematic map protocol

et al. 2022

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Background The scale of land degradation worldwide has led the UN to declare the Decade of Ecosystem Restoration and movements such as the Bonn Challenge (https://www.bonnchallenge.org/), have placed ecological restoration on the global policy agenda. Achieving such ambitious policy targets and restoration goals will necessitate complex trade-offs against limited time, competing knowledge, costs, resources, and varying societal preferences among different stakeholders. Participatory scenarios are a tool to navigate uncertainties surrounding future trajectories and simultaneously incorporate different stakeholder perspectives. They can provide a path to identify collaborative solutions best suited for the local cultures and societies they are tied to. However, there is no systematic understanding of how participatory scenarios are being used in ecological restoration planning to navigate trade-offs in restoration outcomes. We will fill this research gap by mapping the existing evidence from participatory restoration scenarios to answer the primary research question ‘How are outcomes explored in participatory ecological restoration scenarios?’. This will be done through five sub-questions focussing on characteristics of the evidence base, types of study design, how outcomes and trade-offs in those are explored, and an examination of the role of participants in the scenario process and outcome determination. Methods This protocol outlines the methods for a systematic map to identify studies that have used participatory scenarios in restoration planning. A comprehensive and reproducible search strategy will be undertaken across bibliographic databases, web-based engines, and targeted searches in organisational online libraries. Searches will be done online in English, but results in all languages will be screened. Search results will go through a two-step screening process of against pre-determined criteria of inclusion and exclusion, for title and abstract and then full-text. Data will be extracted from eligible studies using a standardised data extraction spreadsheet where details on study characteristics, design and outcomes will be recorded. A searchable database of studies and mapping outcomes will be available upon completion of the work. The aim is to inform how scenarios can be better used as a decision-making tool to increase stakeholder participation and account for trade-offs in restoration outcomes across social, ecological, and economic dimensions.

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Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool

Cited by 6 publications

References 45 publications

Combining the theory of change and realist evaluation approaches to elicit an initial program theory of the MomConnect program in South Africa

Combining the theory of change and realist evaluation approaches to elicit an initial program theory of the MomConnect program in South Africa

Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city

The role of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration: a systematic map protocol

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